Current Location: 29.4N, 86.1W
Geographic Reference: 55 miles SW of Panama City, FL
Movement: North-northeast at 13 mph
Max Winds: 145 mph gusting to 175 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 28 out of a possible 50 points (11 size, 17 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 28 out of a possible 50 points (11 size, 17 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 160 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 265 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
1. The center of Michael will make landfall with 145 mph winds near Panama City early this afternoon.
2. Catastrophic wind and storm surge damage is expected near where the center makes landfall.
3. Strong winds and heavy rains will spread inland into Georgia and the Carolinas late this afternoon and on Thursday.
The center of Michael is approaching the coast of Florida this morning. We expect the center to cross the coast near Panama City by 1PM CDT as a powerful category 4 hurricane. Max sustained winds are predicted to be 145 mph with gusts to 175 mph at landfall. After landfall, Michael will accelerate to the northeast. This will take Michael through Georgia and the Carolinas.
By late Thursday night, Michael will emerge into the Atlantic near the Virginia/North Carolina border as a tropical storm with max sustained winds near 60 mph. Once Michael moves back offshore, it will begin a transition into a larger non-tropical low pressure system that will pass south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Lund, Atwater, and Mississippi Canyon Eastward: The worst from Michael has passed to the east this morning. Conditions will steadily improve through the day today.
Expected Impacts Inland
Florida Panhandle / Extreme Southeast Alabama / SW Georgia: Catastrophic damage due to wind and tidal surge is expected near where the center tracks. This includes well-built structures. Widespread power outages are expected. These power outages could last for an extended period of time. Flooding rains are also likely.
Georgia and the Carolinas: Inland flooding will be possible, including for some of the areas that were flooded in Florence. Power outages due to wind are also possible.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by 12 PM CDT. Our next full advisory will be issued by 3 PM CDT
Meteorologists: Chris Hebert / Derek Ortt
|Forecast Confidence: Average||Hurricane Severity Index|
|Fcst Hour||Valid||Lat.||Lon.||Max Sustained Winds||Max Gusts||Category||Size||Intensity||Total|
|0||9AM CDT Wed Oct 10||29.40N||86.10W||145 mph||175 mph||Category 4||11||17||28|
|6||3PM CDT Wed Oct 10||30.40N||85.40W||140 mph||165 mph||Category 4||11||16||27|
|12||9PM CDT Wed Oct 10||31.50N||84.40W||100 mph||120 mph||Category 2||7||8||15|
|18||3AM CDT Thu Oct 11||32.60N||83.20W||75 mph||90 mph||Category 1||3||5||8|
|24||9AM CDT Thu Oct 11||33.70N||81.70W||50 mph||70 mph||Tropical Storm||1||2||3|
|30||3PM CDT Thu Oct 11||34.90N||79.90W||50 mph||75 mph||Tropical Storm||2||2||4|
|36||9PM CDT Thu Oct 11||36.10N||77.30W||60 mph||70 mph||Tropical Storm||3||3||6|
|42||3AM CDT Fri Oct 12||37.30N||74.50W||60 mph||75 mph||Tropical Storm||4||3||7|
|48||9AM CDT Fri Oct 12||39.10N||70.90W||65 mph||80 mph||Extratropical Storm||4||3||7|
|54||3PM CDT Fri Oct 12||40.80N||67.10W||65 mph||80 mph||Extratropical Storm||5||3||8|
|60||9PM CDT Fri Oct 12||42.70N||62.40W||65 mph||80 mph||Extratropical Storm||6||3||9|
|66||3AM CDT Sat Oct 13||44.50N||57.10W||65 mph||80 mph||Extratropical Storm||6||3||9|
|72||9AM CDT Sat Oct 13||46.30N||50.30W||65 mph||80 mph||Extratropical Storm||6||3||9|
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.