Tropical Cyclone Development Outlook

Active Systems

Name Max Wind Classification Lat Lon
Leslie 75 mph Category 1 28.6N 42.6W
Michael 140 mph Category 4 28.2N 86.6W
Nadine 50 mph Tropical Storm 12.1N 31.1W

Leslie was upgraded to a hurricane last night by the National Hurricane Center. It has 75 mph winds. It is expected to intensify a bit more during the next couple of days before it starts to weaken. The long range track remains uncertain. There are two possible scenarios. One is a track toward Madeira and then toward the Iberian Peninsula. The other is that Leslie will not be captured by the trough that is currently steering it eastward, and it will turn back to the west in a few days and roam over the Atlantic for many days. Our latest advisory, which is available on your StormGeo web portal, favored the track toward Europe.

Michael was located 140 miles SSW of Panama City, Florida as of 4 AM CDT. It is expected to make landfall near Panama City, Florida between 1 PM and 3 PM CDT. Aircraft data received after we issued our 3 AM advisory indicated that Michael has winds of 140 mph. It is forecast to strike with 145 mph winds. It could remain a hurricane until it moves deep into Georgia. It should remain a tropical storm until it moves into the Atlantic early Friday. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information.

Disturbance 51 intensified into Tropical Storm Nadine during the past 24 hours. Nadine is located about 485 miles WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving to the north-northwest near 7 mph. Nadine is no threat to land. Winds are estimated at 50 mph. Nadine may intensify a little more during the next day or so. However, it is not expected to become a hurricane.

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 49 is located south of Hispaniola. it is moving to the west near 12 mph. The disturbance should slow further during the next few days. It is starting to interact with the same monsoon trough that spawned Michael. Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for tropical development over the weekend and next week. There is now a 50 percent chance of development. Any system that develops could threaten Central America, the Yucatan, and the Bay of Campeche. There are no indications that this potential system would move toward the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Disturbance 48 is located along 50W. It is moving to the west near 14 mph. No tropical development is expected as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

Meteorologists: Derek Ortt / David Piech