Wednesday Hurricane Michael – Navigation Restoration Conference Report

Highlights from today’s conference:  
 
NWS/NOAA
  • Hurricane Michael is now a Category 4 hurricane.
  • Landfall is expected later today near Panama City, Florida.
  • Tropical watches are not out for our area at this time.
  • Less than 1” of rainfall is forecast for SE Louisiana, most areas won’t see any rainfall.
  • A Wind Advisory (for winds of 20-30 mph with occasional gusts to 35
    mph) is in effect for Lower St. Bernard and Lower Plaquemines Parishes.
     
 
USACE
  • All locks operating.
  • Harvey sector gate is still closed.


USCG
  • No actions taken at this time.
 
 
PORTS
  • No Reports.
 
Pilots
 
BAR – Ops Normal. No interruption of service.
 
CRPPA –  Ops Normal.
 
NOBRA – Ops Normal.
 
Federal – Ops normal. 


TOWING INDUSTRY
GICA – No report.
GNOBFA – Nothing to report.
 
 
Attachments:
This is the last report for Hurricane Michael.
Hurricane Michael Track Chart, Advisory #21

Current Location: 29.4N, 86.1W
Geographic Reference: 55 miles SW of Panama City, FL
Movement: North-northeast at 13 mph
Max Winds: 145 mph gusting to 175 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 28 out of a possible 50 points (11 size, 17 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 28 out of a possible 50 points (11 size, 17 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 160 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 265 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average

Key Points
1. The center of Michael will make landfall with 145 mph winds near Panama City early this afternoon.
2. Catastrophic wind and storm surge damage is expected near where the center makes landfall.
3. Strong winds and heavy rains will spread inland into Georgia and the Carolinas late this afternoon and on Thursday.

Our Forecast
The center of Michael is approaching the coast of Florida this morning. We expect the center to cross the coast near Panama City by 1PM CDT as a powerful category 4 hurricane. Max sustained winds are predicted to be 145 mph with gusts to 175 mph at landfall. After landfall, Michael will accelerate to the northeast. This will take Michael through Georgia and the Carolinas.

By late Thursday night, Michael will emerge into the Atlantic near the Virginia/North Carolina border as a tropical storm with max sustained winds near 60 mph. Once Michael moves back offshore, it will begin a transition into a larger non-tropical low pressure system that will pass south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Lund, Atwater, and Mississippi Canyon Eastward: The worst from Michael has passed to the east this morning. Conditions will steadily improve through the day today.

Expected Impacts Inland
Florida Panhandle / Extreme Southeast Alabama / SW Georgia: Catastrophic damage due to wind and tidal surge is expected near where the center tracks. This includes well-built structures. Widespread power outages are expected. These power outages could last for an extended period of time. Flooding rains are also likely.

Georgia and the Carolinas: Inland flooding will be possible, including for some of the areas that were flooded in Florence. Power outages due to wind are also possible.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by 12 PM CDT. Our next full advisory will be issued by 3 PM CDT

Meteorologists: Chris Hebert / Derek Ortt


Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 9AM CDT Wed Oct 10 29.40N 86.10W 145 mph 175 mph Category 4 11 17 28
6 3PM CDT Wed Oct 10 30.40N 85.40W 140 mph 165 mph Category 4 11 16 27
12 9PM CDT Wed Oct 10 31.50N 84.40W 100 mph 120 mph Category 2 7 8 15
18 3AM CDT Thu Oct 11 32.60N 83.20W 75 mph 90 mph Category 1 3 5 8
24 9AM CDT Thu Oct 11 33.70N 81.70W 50 mph 70 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
30 3PM CDT Thu Oct 11 34.90N 79.90W 50 mph 75 mph Tropical Storm 2 2 4
36 9PM CDT Thu Oct 11 36.10N 77.30W 60 mph 70 mph Tropical Storm 3 3 6
42 3AM CDT Fri Oct 12 37.30N 74.50W 60 mph 75 mph Tropical Storm 4 3 7
48 9AM CDT Fri Oct 12 39.10N 70.90W 65 mph 80 mph Extratropical Storm 4 3 7
54 3PM CDT Fri Oct 12 40.80N 67.10W 65 mph 80 mph Extratropical Storm 5 3 8
60 9PM CDT Fri Oct 12 42.70N 62.40W 65 mph 80 mph Extratropical Storm 6 3 9
66 3AM CDT Sat Oct 13 44.50N 57.10W 65 mph 80 mph Extratropical Storm 6 3 9
72 9AM CDT Sat Oct 13 46.30N 50.30W 65 mph 80 mph Extratropical Storm 6 3 9

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.