NWS/NOAA has updated their 2020 Hurricane Season Outlook.
Compared to the May 2020 predictions, here are the changes:
- Above Normal —> Was 60%; Now 85%.
- Near Normal —> Was 30%; Now 10%
- Below Normal —> Was 10%; Now 5%
- Named Storms —> Was 13-19; Now 19-25
- Hurricanes —> Was 6-10; Now 7-11
- Major Hurricanes —> Was 3-6; Now 3-6 (No change)
As a reminder, the outlook is for overall seasonal activity, and it is not a landfall forecast.
Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns which are typically only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching the coastline.
The main emphasis is on preparedness.