Tropical Depression Isaac Advisory 28

Tropical Depression Isaac Track Chart, Advisory #28
 

Current Location: 15.3N, 68.2W
Geographic Reference: 195 miles south-southwest of Puerto Rico.
Movement: West at 12 mph
Max Winds: 35 mph gusting to 45 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Organizational Trend: Slowly Decreasing
Forecast Confidence: Average

Key Points
1. Weakening and dissipation are forecast to occur Sunday southeast of Jamaica.

Our Forecast
Isaac is tracking westward through the central Caribbean Sea. The sustained winds remain near 35 mph. Isaac could degenerate into an open wave at any time. We think Isaac will dissipate southeast of Jamaica on Sunday morning.

Our next advisory will be issued by 4 PM AST / 3 PM CDT.

Meteorologist: Jim Palmer

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 9AM CDT Fri Sep 14 15.30N 68.20W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
12 9PM CDT Fri Sep 14 15.30N 70.30W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
24 9AM CDT Sat Sep 15 15.50N 72.30W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
36 9PM CDT Sat Sep 15 15.80N 73.90W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
48 9AM CDT Sun Sep 16 16.10N 75.50W 30 mph 35 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.