Hurricane Florence Advisory 61

Hurricane Florence Track Chart, Advisory #61

Because this storm is no longer a potential threat to your company’s area of concern, this is the final advisory that you will receive via email. Future advisories can be accessed on your StormGeo website.

Current Location: 34N, 78W
Geographic Reference: 5 Miles WNW of Cape Fear, NC
Movement: West-southwest at 4 mph
Max Winds: 85 mph gusting to 105 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 13 out of a possible 50 points (7 size, 6 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 13 out of a possible 50 points (7 size, 6 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 180 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 180 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average

Key Points
1. Florence will be slow to weaken today, as the center may briefly drift back offshore late this morning.
2. A catastrophic inland flood event remains possible for North and South Carolina.

Our Forecast
Radar imagery indicates that Florence has begun the expected southwesterly turn after making landfall in Wilmington. The center of Florence may briefly move back out over the water west of Cape Fear late this morning before turning back to the west and moving inland this afternoon . As a result, Florence will only very slowly weaken during the day today. More rapid weakening will occur tonight and tomorrow morning as Florence tracks westward through central South Carolina. By Sunday morning, Florence will have weakened to a remnant low over northwestern South Carolina as it accelerates northward, passing eastern Kentucky on Monday and into western Pennsylvania on Tuesday.

Expected Impacts on Land
North Carolina: Significant wind and tidal surge damage is occurring along the coast. Catastrophic damage from inland flooding is also possible for southeastern parts of the state.
South Carolina: Wind damage is likely, along with widespread power outages for the northern coast. Severe flooding is also expected for northeast South Carolina as Florence moves slowly through the area tonight and on Saturday.
Southern and SE Virginia : Occasional heavy rain will result in localized street flooding and minor travel delays.
Georgia and Tennessee: The heaviest rainfall will remain well east of Georgia and Tennessee. However, localized street flooding is possible in northeastern Tennessee.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Offshore Delaware to North Carolina: Combined seas as high as 25-35 feet are occurring offshore North Carolina. These seas will be slow to subside over the next 24-48 hours.

We will issue an intermediate advisory by 1 PM EDT. Our next full advisory will be issued by 4 PM EDT

Meteorologist: Chris Hebert

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 9AM CDT Fri Sep 14 34.00N 78.00W 85 mph 105 mph Category 1 7 6 13
6 3PM CDT Fri Sep 14 33.80N 78.40W 85 mph 105 mph Category 1 7 6 13
12 9PM CDT Fri Sep 14 33.70N 78.80W 80 mph 100 mph Category 1 5 5 10
18 3AM CDT Sat Sep 15 33.70N 79.30W 75 mph 90 mph Category 1 6 5 11
24 9AM CDT Sat Sep 15 33.70N 79.60W 60 mph 70 mph Tropical Storm 3 3 6
30 3PM CDT Sat Sep 15 33.70N 80.20W 60 mph 75 mph Tropical Storm 2 3 5
36 9PM CDT Sat Sep 15 33.90N 80.80W 45 mph 60 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
48 9AM CDT Sun Sep 16 34.70N 81.90W 35 mph 45 mph Remnant Low 0 1 1
60 9PM CDT Sun Sep 16 36.10N 83.00W 30 mph 40 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0
72 9AM CDT Mon Sep 17 37.90N 82.80W 30 mph 35 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0
84 9PM CDT Mon Sep 17 39.70N 81.70W 30 mph 35 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0
96 9AM CDT Tue Sep 18 41.20N 78.80W 30 mph 35 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.