Disturbance 37 Advisory 16

Disturbance 37 Track Chart, Advisory #16
 

Current Location: 26.7N, 96.9W
Geographic Reference: Moving into the lower Texas coast
Movement: Northwest at 10 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Organizational Trend: Remains Poorly-Organized
Forecast Confidence: Average

Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that Disturbance 37 consists of an elongated area of low pressure – basically a tropical wave. The disturbance is moving into the Texas coast this morning. The disturbance is causing areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms along and off the Texas coast from the Houston/Galveston area south to northeast Mexico. Though the disturbance will produce enhanced showers and thunderstorms across Texas over the next 24-36 hours, it is not expected to develop into a tropical depression or storm.

This is our final advisory on the disturbance.

Meteorologist: Chris Hebert

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 9AM CDT Fri Sep 14 26.70N 96.90W 30 mph 40 mph Tropical Disturbance 0 0 0
12 9PM CDT Fri Sep 14 27.90N 98.40W 30 mph 40 mph Tropical Disturbance 0 0 0
24 9AM CDT Sat Sep 15 28.70N 99.90W 30 mph 35 mph Tropical Disturbance 0 0 0

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.