Tropical Depression Isaac Advisory 29

Tropical Depression Isaac Track Chart, Advisory #29
 

Current Location: 15.1N, 69.0W
Geographic Reference: 230 miles southwest of Puerto Rico.
Movement: West at 11 mph
Max Winds: 35 mph gusting to 45 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Organizational Trend: Slowly Decreasing
Forecast Confidence: Average

Key Points
1. Weakening and dissipation are forecast to occur late tomorrow or Sunday in the central Caribbean Sea.

Our Forecast
A reconnaissance plane currently investigating Isaac is having a difficult locating a well defined center. It appears that Isaac is quite elongated and will likely degenerate into an open wave disturbance over the next 24 hours. The plane did find some stronger winds well northeast of the center, and there is always a chance the National Hurricane Center will use the higher wind reports to justify upgrading Isaac. However, the organization remains very poor and we think the most likely scenario is that Isaac will dissipate over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Our next advisory will be issued by 10 PM AST / 9 PM CDT.

Meteorologist: Jim Palmer

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 3PM CDT Fri Sep 14 15.10N 69.00W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
12 3AM CDT Sat Sep 15 15.40N 71.00W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
24 3PM CDT Sat Sep 15 15.70N 73.10W 30 mph 40 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0
36 3AM CDT Sun Sep 16 16.00N 74.70W 30 mph 35 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.