Tropical Storm Gordon Track Chart, Advisory #15

Current Location: 31.3N, 89.1W
Geographic Reference: Over southwest Mississippi
Movement: Northwest at 13 mph
Max Winds: 45 mph gusting to 60 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 125 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 125 miles
Organizational Trend: Weakening
Forecast Confidence: Average

Key Points
1. Gordon is pushing inland and weakening.
2. There is a risk of inland flooding, especially in Arkansas.

Our Forecast
Gordon will move northwest through southern Mississippi today. Currently, any tropical storm force winds are limited to some locations near the immediate Alabama Coast and within heavy showers and thunderstorms embedded in rainbands over extreme southwest Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the far western Florida Panhandle near the Alabama border. Scattered additional power outages in locations that receive locally damaging wind gusts within thunderstorms are possible along with isolated tornadoes. Our primary concern, however, is rainfall.

By this afternoon, the center of Gordon will likely move over the southern Mississippi Delta region. Gordon is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by that time. It will move slowly northwest through Arkansas tonight through early Friday where some areas could receive upwards of 6 to 8 inches of rainfall.

Expected Impacts on Land
Southwestern Mississippi to the far western Florida Panhandle: Power outages are occurring now. Any wind damage will be minor.

Western Mississippi and Arkansas. Areas of street flooding are likely to result in travel delays.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by 6 AM CDT. The next full advisory will be issued at 10 AM CDT.

Meteorologist: Cameron Self

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 3AM CDT Wed Sep 05 31.30N 89.10W 45 mph 60 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
6 9AM CDT Wed Sep 05 32.10N 90.00W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
12 3PM CDT Wed Sep 05 32.80N 90.80W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
18 9PM CDT Wed Sep 05 33.20N 91.20W 30 mph 35 mph Tropical Depression 0 0 0
24 3AM CDT Thu Sep 06 33.60N 91.70W 30 mph 35 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0
36 3PM CDT Thu Sep 06 34.20N 92.70W 30 mph 35 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0
48 3AM CDT Fri Sep 07 34.90N 93.40W 30 mph 35 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0
60 3PM CDT Fri Sep 07 35.90N 93.90W 30 mph 35 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0
72 3AM CDT Sat Sep 08 36.90N 93.60W 30 mph 35 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.