Current Location: 23.6N, 84.6W
Geographic Reference: 110 miles north of the western tip of Cuba
Movement: North at 8 mph
Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 115 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 120 miles
Organizational Trend: Very slowly becoming better-organized
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
1. There has been little change in intensity this evening. However, Alberto is starting to look more tropical
2. Gradual intensification is forecast until landfall. While we still are predicting a 60 mph tropical storm, there remains a 25 percent chance that Alberto could be a hurricane.
3. Heavy rains are now forecast to push farther inland into central Alabama.
Our Forecast
A reconnaissance plane is again investigating Alberto. It has found winds of 40 mph well east of the center. Thus, there has been no change in intensity. However, recent satellite imagery is showing thunderstorms developing near the center for the first time. This is a sign that the wind shear is decreasing. It also means Alberto is starting to transition into a tropical storm. It should become a tropical storm by the morning. With the shear decreasing, confidence is increasing that Alberto will in fact intensify. Winds are forecast to be 60 mph at landfall. However, some of the guidance continues to insist upon Alberto being a hurricane. The chance of Alberto being a hurricane at landfall remains 25 percent.
After reforming to the northeast earlier, Alberto has again slowed its forward speed. That said, it should soon start to move northward and then to the NNW at a steady speed. Landfall is forecast to occur over the western Florida Panhandle Monday afternoon. Alberto is forecast to move steadily northward after landfall.
With confidence increasing of a steady motion after landfall, we have adjusted the rain impact areas. There is an increasing chance of flooding into central Alabama.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Mississippi Canyon/Viosca Knoll/Mobile – The eastward track adjustment reduces, but does not eliminate, the risk of tropical storm conditions in Mississippi Canyon north through the Viosca Knoll and Mobile blocks.
Expected Impacts Onshore
Florida Peninsula – Rain bands capable of producing heavy rainfall and gusty winds are already impacting the coast from Ft. Myers to Tampa. These squalls may result in brief street flooding and isolated power outages.
Florida Panhandle through Southern Alabama – Heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur from Sunday through Tuesday, resulting in widespread travel issues. Wind gusts in squalls may produce scattered power outages along the immediate coast of Alabama and Florida. Widespread power outages are likely near where the center makes landfall.
Mississippi Coast – Alberto’s strongest wind and heaviest squalls may pass to your east on Monday. Of course, any track adjustment back to the west may put the Mississippi coast back into the heavier squalls and stronger winds.
Our next advisory will be issued by 3 AM CDT
Meteorologist: Derek Ortt / George Harvey
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9PM CDT Sat May 26 | 23.60N | 84.60W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Subtropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 12 | 9AM CDT Sun May 27 | 26.50N | 85.00W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 24 | 9PM CDT Sun May 27 | 28.30N | 86.00W | 50 mph | 65 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 36 | 9AM CDT Mon May 28 | 29.60N | 87.00W | 60 mph | 75 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 42 | 3PM CDT Mon May 28 | 30.30N | 87.20W | 60 mph | 75 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 48 | 9PM CDT Mon May 28 | 31.00N | 87.30W | 50 mph | 65 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 60 | 9AM CDT Tue May 29 | 33.00N | 87.50W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 72 | 9PM CDT Tue May 29 | 35.30N | 87.70W | 25 mph | 30 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
