Current Location: 9.3N, 31.5W
Geographic Reference: 595 miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
Movement: West at 18 mph
Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 35 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 35 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
1. Kirk may reach the southern Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm Thursday morning.
2. Kirk is predicted to dissipate north of Venezuela next Saturday.
Our Forecast
Kirk has changed very little over the past few hours and remains a minimal tropical storm with sustained winds of 40 mph. We expect Kirk to weaken and become a depression in 24 to 36 hours. When Kirk begins slowing down late Tuesday, it could regain tropical storm strength as it approaches the Windward Islands. Increasing wind shear across the eastern Caribbean will likely lead to weakening and dissipation north of Venezuela next Friday or Saturday. There is currently no model support for Kirk reaching the Gulf of Mexico or the southeast U.S. Coast.
Our next advisory will be issued by 4 PM AST / 3 PM CDT.
Meteorologist: Jim Palmer
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9AM CDT Sun Sep 23 | 9.30N | 31.50W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 12 | 9PM CDT Sun Sep 23 | 9.40N | 34.70W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 24 | 9AM CDT Mon Sep 24 | 9.70N | 39.20W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 36 | 9PM CDT Mon Sep 24 | 10.10N | 43.50W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 48 | 9AM CDT Tue Sep 25 | 10.50N | 47.60W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 72 | 9AM CDT Wed Sep 26 | 11.20N | 54.60W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 96 | 9AM CDT Thu Sep 27 | 12.30N | 60.10W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 108 | 9PM CDT Thu Sep 27 | 12.80N | 62.50W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 120 | 9AM CDT Fri Sep 28 | 13.20N | 65.00W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 144 | 9AM CDT Sat Sep 29 | 13.90N | 70.10W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
