Tropical Cyclone Development Outlook

Active Systems

Name Max Wind Classification Lat Lon
Tropical Depression Eleven 30 mph Tropical Depression 14.2N 55.5W
Kirk 40 mph Tropical Storm 9.1N 28.3W

Tropical Depression Eleven
Tropical Depression Eleven is located about 360 miles east of St. Lucia. It is moving to the west at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph. The depression has likely weakened to a tropical wave axis already and will be downgraded to a remnant low by the National Hurricane Center later today. It is unlikely to produce any significant impacts to the Lesser Antilles. It is unlikely to regenerate. Please see our latest advisory for more information.

Kirk
Tropical Storm Kirk is located about 480 miles to the south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving to the west at 23 mph. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph. Kirk will reach the Windward Islands as a weak tropical storm by Thursday and may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. It is likely to dissipate in the central Caribbean by next weekend. Please see our latest advisory for more information.

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 42 is a weak low-pressure system located about 310 miles south-southwest of Bermuda near 28.2N, 46.0W. It is moving to the west-southwest at 6 mph. There is very little thunderstorm activity with the low at this time. There is a 20 percent chance of subtropical or tropical development. The low is expected to pass to the southwest of Bermuda today into Monday. Then, it may pass near or to the east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to become more unfavorable for development for the middle part of next week.

Disturbance 44 is a non-tropical low located about 940 miles to the west-southwest of the Azores near 32.9N, 46.0W. We think that there is a 70 percent chance that it could become a subtropical or tropical storm early next week. The system is forecast to meander over the central Atlantic until it is absorbed by a frontal system by Wednesday and not affect any land areas.

A non-tropical low will likely form along a frontal system several hundred miles to the west of the Azores by Wednesday of next week. This low may obtain subtropical or tropical characteristics late this coming week. There is a 40 percent chance of subtropical or tropical development over the next seven days. This potential system is likely to meander well west of the Azores late this coming week into next weekend.

Disturbance 39 has moved across Central America and entered the Eastern Pacific basin.

Meteorologists: Claude Aultman / Justin Petrutsas