Disturbance 37 Track Chart, Advisory #8

Current Location: 23.8N, 91.5W
Geographic Reference: 440 miles ESE of Corpus Christi, Texas
Movement: West-northwest at 9 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Organizational Trend: Remains Poorly-Organized
Forecast Confidence: Average

Chance of Development: 60 percent

Key Points
1. Disturbance 37 is no longer predicted to become a tropical storm. Development chances reduced to 60 percent.
2. Whether or not the disturbance develops, it will produce gusty winds, scattered heavy squalls, and rough seas across portions of the northwest Gulf lease areas from this afternoon through Saturday morning.
3. Heavy rain is likely for the mid to upper Texas coast from Thursday through Saturday.

Our Forecast
Overnight models have dropped development of this disturbance. Given its ragged appearance on satellite, we’re thinking that development chances are lowering. The main change in this advisory was to drop the prediction that it will become a tropical storm prior to landfall. It could develop a circulation and become a tropical depression, but wind impacts across the northwest Gulf are looking minor. Once inland, it will quickly weaken to a remnant low pressure area. The primary threat from this disturbance across Texas will be increased rain chances for Friday and Saturday as it moves ashore.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Offshore Texas: Squalls are expected to move into the deepwater areas by tomorrow morning and spread northwest to the coast by evening. Wind gusts to 50 mph are possible in heavier squalls, along with locally rough seas.

Expected Impacts Inland
Texas Coast: Heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday through Saturday. Minor travel delays are expected. Minor flood damage may also occur in isolated locations.

Our next advisory will be issued by 3 PM CDT

Meteorologist: Chris Hebert

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 9AM CDT Wed Sep 12 23.80N 91.50W 30 mph 40 mph Tropical Disturbance 0 0 0
24 9AM CDT Thu Sep 13 25.30N 94.70W 30 mph 40 mph Tropical Disturbance 0 0 0
36 9PM CDT Thu Sep 13 26.00N 95.80W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Disturbance 0 1 1
48 9AM CDT Fri Sep 14 26.90N 97.00W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
60 9PM CDT Fri Sep 14 27.90N 98.30W 30 mph 40 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0
72 9AM CDT Sat Sep 15 28.60N 99.60W 30 mph 35 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.