Remnants of Gordon Track Chart, Advisory #18

Current Location: 33.0N, 90.7W
Geographic Reference: Approaching Southeast Arkansas
Movement: Northwest at 5 mph
Max Winds: 25 mph gusting to 35 mph
Organizational Trend: Slowly Weakening
Forecast Confidence: Average

Gordon has weakened to a remnant low while over the southern Mississippi Delta region. The remnants will slowly move into Arkansas tonight and enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over Arkansas through Saturday.

Tonight, showers and thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall are expected over portions of northern Mississippi and the Delta region. Localized flooding and isolated severe thunderstorms are the primary concern. By Thursday morning, these showers and storms will be moving into southern and eastern Arkansas. Due to the deceleration of Gordon’s remnants, scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely persist over much of Arkansas through Saturday. Recent radar and satellite data indicate that Gordon is not holding together as well as previously predicted. The model guidance is responding to these trends and is showing less rain than before.

In previous updates, the widespread expected rainfall was expected to be about 4-8 inches for southern Arkansas. The latest data indicate that widespread totals may be more in the 2-4 inch range. Despite these recent trends, locally heavier totals in the 4-8 inch range remain possible. Therefore, localized flash flooding remains a concern.

By Saturday and beyond, the remnants of Gordon will turn north and be absorbed into a frontal boundary over the midwest.

This is our final advisory.

Meteorologist: Cameron Self

Forecast Confidence:   Average
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category
0 9PM CDT Wed Sep 05 33.00N 90.70W 25 mph 35 mph Remnant Low
12 9AM CDT Thu Sep 06 33.50N 91.70W 25 mph 35 mph Remnant Low
24 9PM CDT Thu Sep 06 33.90N 92.70W 25 mph 35 mph Remnant Low
36 9AM CDT Fri Sep 07 34.80N 93.70W 25 mph 35 mph Remnant Low

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.