Tropical Cyclone Development Outlook

Active Systems

Name Max Wind Classification Lat Lon
Florence 115 mph Category 3 24.1N 47.9W

Florence
Hurricane Florence will likely continue to weaken over the next 2-3 days as it battles high wind shear. Beyond then, it is expected to resume its strengthening trend. It currently has winds near 115 mph and is about 1170 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Florence could track near Bermuda by early next week. The forecast beyond about Monday-Tuesday of next week is highly uncertain. It remains too early to predict with confidence whether or not the system will impact the United States outside of increased swell. Please see our latest advisory for more details.

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
The remnants of Gordon will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over Arkansas through Saturday. Beyond then, it will be absorbed by a frontal boundary to its north.

Disturbance 33 is near 12N, 31W. It moving west near 10 mph. A west to west-northwest motion is expected over the next 5-7 days. The system has a very high (90 percent) chance of development. We continue to think that if it did reach the eastern Caribbean, it would not do so until late next week.

We have recognized Disturbance 34 over West Africa. It will move off the coast over the next 24 hours. It has a 50 percent chance of development. We cannot rule out the system already being a tropical storm by the time it moves over the Cape Verde Islands on Sunday.

Disturbance 31 is about to move into the Yucatan Peninsula. It remains weak. Development is not expected.

Meteorologists: Cameron Self / Matt Haworth