Current Location: 20.9N, 87.1W
Geographic Reference: Over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
Movement: North-northeast at 7 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 105 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady – no changes past 12 hours
Forecast Confidence: Below Average
Key Points
- There is a 90 percent chance that Disturbance 3 will become a tropical depression or tropical storm by Sunday.
- The system is still expected to be sheared with the heaviest squalls and highest winds located to the east of the center.
- The system will present a significant flood risk to the central Gulf Coast early next week due to its predicted slow movement.
- Little impact is expected from west of New Orleans to Texas.
Our Forecast
There has been little change in the organization of Tropical Disturbance 3 as the weak low approaches the coast of the northeastern Yucatan.
The system is expected to become better organized this weekend as it generally tracks to the north over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm over the weekend as wind shear lessens over the disturbance. Afterward, the possible tropical storm will track to the north-northwest towards the central Gulf Coast. It is forecast to make landfall Monday evening near the Mississippi and Alabama state line with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. There remains a low risk that the system could become a hurricane briefly before making landfall if wind shear becomes lighter than forecast this weekend.
Heavy rainfall will be the main concern as the system is forecast to be slow moving while approaching the central Gulf coast. Outer rainbands from the system could impact the Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle as early as Sunday afternoon. By the time the system reaches the Gulf Coast near Mississippi and Alabama, it could produce wind gusts of up to hurricane force in the heaviest squalls near and to the east of where it makes landfall. Though some impacts from wind are a concern, it is the heavy rainfall within the rainbands that is of most concern. The best chance of heavy rainfall from the panhandle of Florida to southern Alabama and southern Mississippi is on Monday and Tuesday. If the system tracks slow enough, rainfall could linger into Wednesday. The heaviest squalls are expected to be east of Louisiana. However, locally heavy rainfall capable of producing localized flooding will be possible in southeast Louisiana, especially on Monday and Tuesday.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Atwater Valley and Lund Leases – Squalls are possible late Saturday night through Monday. The strongest winds will remain east and northeast of these locations. The last full day of good flying weather will be Saturday.
Mississippi Canyon to South Pass Leases – Heavy squalls will be possible Sunday and Monday. Wind gusts may reach up to 50 mph in squalls. The last full day of good flying weather will be Saturday.
Main Pass/Viosca Knoll to Mobile Leases – Heavy squalls and winds of up to 40 mph to 60 mph will be possible Sunday and Monday. Wind gusts may reach up to 75 mph in squalls to the east of where the tropical system tracks. The last full day of good flying weather will be Saturday.
Eastern Gulf of Mexico (east of 88W) – Widespread squalls will be possible late Saturday through Monday with wind gusts to 70 mph to 75 mph in the strongest squalls along with rough seas.
Expected Impacts Onshore
Florida Peninsula – Rainbands capable of producing heavy rainfall and isolated severe weather are expected on Saturday through Monday, resulting in brief street flooding and isolated power outages.
Florida Panhandle through Southern Mississippi and Alabama – Heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur from Sunday through Tuesday or Wednesday, resulting in widespread travel issues. Wind gusts in squalls may produce scattered power outages along the immediate coast of Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida.
Our next advisory will be issued by 9 AM CDT.
Meteorologist: Claude Aultman
| Forecast Confidence: Below Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 3AM CDT Fri May 25 | 20.90N | 87.10W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 3PM CDT Fri May 25 | 21.90N | 86.80W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 24 | 3AM CDT Sat May 26 | 23.00N | 86.50W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 36 | 3PM CDT Sat May 26 | 24.30N | 86.30W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 48 | 3AM CDT Sun May 27 | 26.20N | 86.20W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 60 | 3PM CDT Sun May 27 | 27.80N | 86.90W | 50 mph | 65 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 72 | 3AM CDT Mon May 28 | 29.00N | 87.50W | 60 mph | 75 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 84 | 3PM CDT Mon May 28 | 30.10N | 88.00W | 60 mph | 75 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 87 | 6PM CDT Mon May 28 | 30.30N | 88.20W | 50 mph | 65 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 96 | 3AM CDT Tue May 29 | 31.00N | 88.80W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 108 | 3PM CDT Tue May 29 | 31.90N | 89.20W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 120 | 3AM CDT Wed May 30 | 33.00N | 89.10W | 15 mph | 25 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
