Current Location: 20.0N, 87.5W
Geographic Reference: Over the northeast Yucatan Peninsula
Movement: North-northeast at 4 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 105 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady – no changes past 12 hours
Forecast Confidence: Below Average

Key Points
1. There is an 80 percent chance that Disturbance 3 will become a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by Sunday morning.
2. Strong southwesterly wind shear should keep most squalls and stronger wind east of the track.
3. The heavy rain threat is shifting to the Florida Panhandle and southern Mississippi and Alabama.
4. Little impact is expected from the mouth of the Mississippi west to Texas.

Our Forecast
The European and American models have come into much better agreement overnight, not only on the track but also on the timing of landfall on the northern Gulf Coast. We have made a westward adjustment in the track, taking the center inland near the Mississippi/Alabama border. The timing of landfall is now on Monday morning. Models are in good agreement that the forward speed will slow considerably as the center nears the coast. This would result in very heavy rainfall from southern Mississippi east through the Florida Panhandle and north into southern Alabama from Sunday through Wednesday of next week. With the westward track adjustment, the threat of very heavy rain across the Florida Peninsula has decreased.

We think that the disturbance will become organized enough to be classified as a tropical depression by Saturday afternoon or evening, and a weak tropical storm by Sunday morning. Max sustained winds could reach 45 mph at landfall. Continued west and southwesterly wind shear should keep most of the heavy squalls and tropical storm-force wind east of the track. We do not expect tropical storm-force winds to penetrate inland into the Gulf Coast beyond the immediate coast. Once the center moves inland it should quickly weaken to a depression and a remnant low, but the heavy rainfall threat will continue into Wednesday.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Eastern Gulf of Mexico (east of 89W) – Widespread squalls Friday to early Monday with wind gusts to 50 kts possible, along with rough seas at times.

Expected Impacts Onshore
Florida Peninsula – Occasional squalls Saturday through Monday, resulting in brief street flooding.
Florida Panhandle through Southern Mississippi and Alabama – Heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur from Sunday through Wednesday, resulting in widespread travel issues. Wind gusts in squalls may produce isolated power outages along the immediate coast of Alabama and Florida.

Our next advisory will be issued by 3PM CDT.

Meteorologist: Chris Hebert

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.