Current Location: 11.9N, 53.0W
Geographic Reference: 440 miles east of Barbados
Movement: West-northwest at 20 mph
Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 50 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles
Organizational Trend: Increasing
Forecast Confidence: Average
Chance of Redevelopment: 90 percent
Key Points
1. Kirk may be upgraded to a tropical storm this morning.
2. Regardless of classification, gusty winds and locally heavy rains are expected for the Windward Islands.
2. Kirk is predicted to dissipate in the eastern Caribbean over the weekend.
Our Forecast
If recent satellite trends continue, Kirk will be upgraded to a tropical storm this morning. As Kirk approaches the Caribbean, it is expected to encounter strong wind shear. Thus, it is forecast to lose organization as it approaches the Windward Islands Thursday morning. Once it moves into the Caribbean, Kirk is forecast to once again revert back to a remnant trough.
Even if Kirk manages to lose its tropical storm status, gusty winds and locally heavy rains will occur for the Windward Islands on Thursday.
Expected Impacts on Land
Windward Islands: Localized flooding may occur due to heavy rains. Any power outages are likely to be isolated in nature.
Puerto Rico: What is left of Kirk may enhance shower and thunderstorm activity for Puerto Rico on Friday. Widespread significant impacts are not expected. However, locally heavy rainfall is possible.
Our next advisory will be issued by 10 AM AST / 9 AM CDT
Meteorologist: Cameron Self
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 3AM CDT Wed Sep 26 | 11.90N | 53.00W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Remnant Low | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 12 | 3PM CDT Wed Sep 26 | 12.80N | 56.50W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 24 | 3AM CDT Thu Sep 27 | 13.90N | 59.80W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 36 | 3PM CDT Thu Sep 27 | 14.60N | 62.10W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Remnant Low | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 48 | 3AM CDT Fri Sep 28 | 15.20N | 64.60W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 60 | 3PM CDT Fri Sep 28 | 15.90N | 66.90W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 1 | 1 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
