Remnants of Kirk Track Chart, Advisory #15

Current Location: 11.7N, 50.7W
Geographic Reference: 600 miles east of Barbados
Movement: West-northwest at 15 mph
Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average

Chance of Redevelopment: 70 percent

Key Points
1. Kirk remains well organized.
2. Regardless of classification, gusty winds and locally heavy rains are expected for the Windward Islands.
2. Kirk is predicted to dissipate in the eastern Caribbean late Thursday or Friday.

Our Forecast
Kirk is still predicted to become a tropical storm. However, its window of opportunity to develop is decreasing quickly. If Kirk can’t manage to become a tropical storm by tomorrow morning, then its chance of development will decrease significantly. At this time, we continue to predict that it will become a tropical storm. As Kirk approaches the Caribbean, it is expected to encounter strong wind shear. Thus, it is forecast to lose organization as it approaches the Windward Islands Thursday morning. Once it moves into the Caribbean, Kirk is forecast to once again revert back to a remnant trough.

Even if Kirk does not become a tropical storm once again, gusty winds and locally heavy rains will occur for the Windward Islands.

Expected Impacts on Land
Windward Islands: Localized flooding may occur due to heavy rains. Any power outages are likely to be isolated in nature.

Our next advisory will be issued by 4 AM AST / 3 AM CDT

Meteorologist: Cameron Self

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 9PM CDT Tue Sep 25 11.70N 50.70W 40 mph 50 mph Remnant Low 1 1 2
12 9AM CDT Wed Sep 26 12.60N 54.80W 45 mph 60 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
24 9PM CDT Wed Sep 26 13.40N 58.30W 45 mph 60 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
36 9AM CDT Thu Sep 27 13.90N 61.30W 45 mph 60 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
48 9PM CDT Thu Sep 27 14.10N 64.00W 40 mph 50 mph Remnant Low 1 1 2
60 9AM CDT Fri Sep 28 14.40N 66.80W 35 mph 45 mph Remnant Low 0 1 1

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.