A forecast update provided by our colleagues from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) is here. Highlights from today’s update specific to the areas along the Mississippi River Ship Channel are reproduced below (listed in bold):
Dry weather over the past several days is allowing most locations on the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Rivers to reach crest and start to recede. Minor rises are only occurring from Memphis, TN downstream to Helena, AR and the rises should end over the next couple of days.
Minor to isolated moderate flooding continues on the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Rivers but all locations from Cairo, IL downstream to Greenville, MS should be below flood stage by early next week.
Minor to isolated moderate flooding will continue on the lower Mississippi River from Vicksburg, MS to Baton Rouge, LA. All locations are receding and flooding should end over the next 2 to 3 weeks.
The lower Mississippi River Valley will start to get into a wetter pattern this week. Right now, the axis of heavy rain is confined to Louisiana and Mississippi and amounts of 2 to 4 inches are forecast during the next week. Where heavier rain bands setup, some locations on the lower Mississippi River could have some temporary rises of a few tenths but the overall trend will be for receding river conditions over the next few weeks.
The 16 day future rainfall guidance is not showing any additional rises or crests over the next month but it is showing some reductions on the falls in the 3 to 4 week time period.
The Carrollton Gauge at New Orleans is predicted to crest at 14.40 feet over the next few days and to then begin a slow fall to 11.4 feet on May 4, 2021.