Key Points
1. Disturbance 47 is predicted to become a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening.
2. Landfall is predicted to be east of Pensacola, FL Wednesday evening as a 65 mph tropical storm.
3. Heaviest squalls and most tropical storm-force winds will likely be located east of the track.
4. There is an increasing chance that the disturbance may be near hurricane intensity at landfall.
Changes from previous updates:
- One consistency in model runs over the past 12 hours is the prediction of a stronger storm at landfall on the northern Gulf Coast.
- In fact, all of the main global models are indicating that Disturbance 47 will strengthen into a hurricane prior to landfall.
- We have increased the predicted intensity at landfall to 65 mph in this advisory.
- The other change to this advisory was to indicate a faster forward speed across the Gulf, which results in landfall closer to noon on Wednesday rather than in the evening.
Southeast Louisiana: On the current forecast track, the heavy squalls should pass east of Louisiana. No significant impacts would be felt there.
Current Location: 18.1N, 86.1W
Geographic Reference: 180 miles SSE of Cozumel, MX
Movement: North at 4 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 75 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady – Poorly-Organized
Forecast Confidence: AverageChance of Development: 90 percent
Key Points
1. Disturbance 47 is predicted to become a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening.
2. Landfall is predicted to be east of Pensacola, FL Wednesday evening as a 65 mph tropical storm.
3. Heaviest squalls and most tropical storm-force winds will likely be located east of the track.
4. There is an increasing chance that the disturbance may be near hurricane intensity at landfall.
Our Forecast
One consistency that we have seen in model runs over the past 12 hours is the prediction of a stronger storm at landfall on the northern Gulf Coast. In fact, all of the main global models are indicating that Disturbance 47 will strengthen into a hurricane prior to landfall, despite the fact that there may be moderate wind shear across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This raises some doubt as to the strength of the predicted wind shear in the path of Disturbance 47 as it crosses the central and northern Gulf next week. While we are not yet ready to predict that the disturbance will be a hurricane at landfall, we do think that the chances of a strong tropical storm or a hurricane are increasing. We have increased the predicted intensity at landfall to 65 mph in this advisory.
The other change that we have made in this advisory was to indicate a faster forward speed across the Gulf, which results in landfall closer to noon on Wednesday rather than in the evening. However, the timing of landfall remains quite uncertain. Models are indicating that landfall could occur as early as Tuesday night, or as late as noon on Thursday. Our forecast is toward the middle of model guidance as far as the landfall timing.
Once inland, the storm should quickly weaken to a tropical depression in southeastern Alabama. We indicate that the depression will transition to a non-tropical low pressure system over eastern Tennessee by Thursday afternoon. The main threat inland will be from heavy rainfall rather than strong winds. The heavy rain could spread into the Carolinas on Thursday, reaching areas hard-hit by Hurricane Florence.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Lund, Atwater, and Mississippi Canyon Eastward: Squalls reaching the deepwater areas off the southeast Louisiana coast during the early afternoon on Tuesday, making Monday possibly the last guaranteed full day of good flying weather.
Walker Ridge, Green Canyon, and Ship Shoal: Squalls should generally pass to the east of this area, though we cannot rule out any thunderstorm activity during the day on Tuesday and on Wednesday.
Expected Impacts Inland
Southeast Louisiana: On the current forecast track, the heavy squalls should pass east of Louisiana. No significant impacts would be felt there.
Mississippi Coast: Heaviest squalls should pass to the east of Mississippi on Wednesday. However, any track shift back to the west could bring heavy squalls to the Mississippi coast on Wednesday.
Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Mid-Florida Panhandle: Heavy squalls likely on Wednesday, particularly east of the track across the Florida Panhandle. Tides may increase to 3-5 feet above normal, causing coastal flooding. Heavy rain may cause travel issues.
Our next advisory will be issued by 9 PM CDT.
Meteorologists: Chris Hebert / Jim Palmer
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 3PM CDT Sat Oct 06 | 18.10N | 86.10W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | 3PM CDT Sun Oct 07 | 19.50N | 86.30W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 | 3AM CDT Mon Oct 08 | 21.00N | 86.30W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 48 | 3PM CDT Mon Oct 08 | 22.40N | 86.80W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 60 | 3AM CDT Tue Oct 09 | 24.20N | 87.20W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 72 | 3PM CDT Tue Oct 09 | 26.30N | 87.80W | 50 mph | 65 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 84 | 3AM CDT Wed Oct 10 | 28.60N | 87.70W | 60 mph | 70 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 90 | 9AM CDT Wed Oct 10 | 29.90N | 87.00W | 65 mph | 75 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 96 | 3PM CDT Wed Oct 10 | 31.20N | 86.30W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 108 | 3AM CDT Thu Oct 11 | 33.20N | 84.90W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 120 | 3PM CDT Thu Oct 11 | 36.00N | 83.20W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Extratropical Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
