Disturbance 47 Track Chart, Advisory #8

Current Location: 18.7N, 87.0W
Geographic Reference: 105 miles south of Cozumel, MX
Movement: Nearly Stationary
Max Winds: 35 mph gusting to 45 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 200 miles
Organizational Trend: Slowly increasing
Forecast Confidence: Average

Chance of Development: 100 percent

Key Points
1. Disturbance 47 is expected to bring locally heavy rains to the Yucatan and western Cuba.
2. We are now forecasting a hurricane with 80 mph winds to make landfall on the Florida Panhandle Wednesday morning.
4. Heavy rain is possible in some of the areas that were affected by Hurricane Florence.

Our Forecast
Disturbance 47 (NHC Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen) has slowed temporarily. However, most of the model guidance indicates a faster motion than we previously were forecasting. Our forecast is for the system to move mainly to the north for the next few days. This will take the system near the Yucatan today, bringing heavy rains there. The squalls extend far enough to the east of the center such that heavy rains will also occur for western Cuba. Once in the Gulf, a track mainly to the north is forecast to continue. The forecast has been accelerated by a few hours out of respect for the majority of the model guidance. Landfall is now forecast to occur around 9 AM CDT Wednesday morning somewhere between Mobile Bay and the Big Bend area of Florida. The greatest risk appears to be for the western Florida Panhandle. After landfall, the track has been shifted a little the east, taking the system through western South Carolina and central North Carolina. This increases the threat to areas flooded by Hurricane Florence. After impacting the Carolinas, our forecast now takes the system offshore of the Mid Atlantic Coast in about 5 days. It is then expected to accelerate to the east-northeast. The thinking is that the extratropical storm should remain south of Atlantic Canada.

Squalls have increased near the center of Disturbance 47. In addition, the winds are increasing based upon recent satellite data. The surface circulation has also become very well defined. The disturbance should be a depression later this morning, if it is not already one. While there is strong wind shear affecting the system now, the wind shear is expected to abate during the next day or so. The dynamical models insist upon significant intensification in the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, our latest forecast is for the system to become a tropical storm either tonight or early tomorrow morning. It is then expected to become a hurricane by the time it strikes the northern Gulf Coast. While the forecast is for winds to be 80 mph at landfall, there is a chance that the system could be stronger than we are forecasting. After landfall, weakening is expected, along with a transition into an extratropical storm. Once it moves off of the Mid Atlantic, it should intensify again as an extratropical storm.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Lund, Atwater, and Mississippi Canyon Eastward: Squalls are forecast to reach the deepwater areas off the southeast Louisiana coast during the morning or early afternoon on Tuesday, making Monday possibly the last guaranteed full day of good flying weather.

Walker Ridge, Green Canyon, and Ship Shoal: Squalls should generally pass to the east of this area, though we cannot rule out any thunderstorm activity during the day on Tuesday and on Wednesday.

Expected Impacts Inland
Mississippi and west Alabama Coast: Heaviest squalls should pass to the east of Mississippi and Alabama on Wednesday. That said, strong winds may occur for coastal Alabama, causing scattered power outages.

Alabama East of Mobile Bay and Florida Panhandle: Widespread power outages are likely near where the center makes landfall. Minor to moderate damage may also occur from both the wind and the surge. Flooding rains are also likely.

Georgia and Carolinas: Inland flooding will be possible, including for some of the areas that were flooded in Florence. Southwestern Georgia could see power outages and some wind damage

Our next advisory will be issued by 9 AM CDT.

Meteorologists: Derek Ortt / Nick Kosar

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 3AM CDT Sun Oct 07 18.70N 87.00W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Disturbance 0 1 1
12 3PM CDT Sun Oct 07 20.30N 86.90W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
24 3AM CDT Mon Oct 08 21.80N 86.70W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
36 3PM CDT Mon Oct 08 23.50N 86.70W 50 mph 65 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
48 3AM CDT Tue Oct 09 25.30N 86.80W 65 mph 80 mph Tropical Storm 2 3 5
60 3PM CDT Tue Oct 09 27.10N 87.10W 70 mph 85 mph Tropical Storm 2 4 6
72 3AM CDT Wed Oct 10 29.20N 87.10W 75 mph 90 mph Category 1 3 5 8
78 9AM CDT Wed Oct 10 30.50N 86.50W 80 mph 105 mph Category 1 3 5 8
84 3PM CDT Wed Oct 10 31.80N 85.80W 60 mph 75 mph Tropical Storm 2 3 5
96 3AM CDT Thu Oct 11 34.00N 83.00W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
108 3PM CDT Thu Oct 11 36.50N 79.00W 35 mph 50 mph Extratropical Low 0 1 1
120 3AM CDT Fri Oct 12 38.50N 73.50W 45 mph 60 mph Extratropical Storm 1 2 3
144 3AM CDT Sat Oct 13 43.00N 60.00W 60 mph 75 mph Extratropical Storm 4 3 7

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.