Current Location: 10.1N, 41.7W
Geographic Reference: 1215 miles ESE of Barbados
Movement: West at 22 mph
Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles
Organizational Trend: Increasing
Forecast Confidence: Average
Chance of Redevelopment: 60 percent
Key Points
1. Kirk has become significantly better organized this afternoon.
2. Kirk is forecast to move through the Windward Islands as a tropical depression.
2. Kirk is predicted to dissipate in the eastern Caribbean on Friday.
Our Forecast
Afternoon visible satellite imagery indicates that Kirk has become significantly better organized. A broad low level circulation appears to have redeveloped. For this reason, we have raised the chance of redevelopment from 30 percent to 60 percent. In addition, there is an area of tropical storm force winds to the north of the center.
Kirk is still moving slightly north of due west at a rapid speed. It should begin to slow tomorrow and turn more to the west-northwest. Our forecast is for Kirk to move near Barbados Thursday afternoon. It should move through the remainder of the Windward Islands on Thursday night. The west-northwest motion should continue as Kirk moves into the Caribbean.
While Kirk is better organized now, environmental conditions are currently as favorable as they will be for Kirk. While Kirk is forecast to slow down, which would normally help it organize, wind shear is expected to increase. As Kirk will be slowing, the strong winds north of the center should relax somewhat. This, along with the increasing wind shear, is why we are forecasting Kirk to be a tropical depression as it moves into the Caribbean. Kirk is still forecast to dissipate in the eastern Caribbean.
Expected Impacts on Land
Windward Islands: Localized flooding may occur due to heavy rains. Any power outages are likely to isolated in nature.
Our next advisory will be issued by 10 PM AST / 9 PM CDT
Meteorologist: Derek Ortt
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 4PM CDT Mon Sep 24 | 10.10N | 41.70W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Remnant Low | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 12 | 4AM CDT Tue Sep 25 | 10.60N | 45.50W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Remnant Low | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 24 | 4PM CDT Tue Sep 25 | 11.00N | 49.00W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 36 | 4AM CDT Wed Sep 26 | 11.60N | 52.50W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 48 | 4PM CDT Wed Sep 26 | 12.30N | 55.00W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 60 | 4AM CDT Thu Sep 27 | 13.00N | 57.50W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 72 | 4PM CDT Thu Sep 27 | 13.50N | 60.00W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 84 | 4AM CDT Fri Sep 28 | 13.80N | 62.50W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 96 | 4PM CDT Fri Sep 28 | 14.00N | 65.00W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 120 | 4PM CDT Sat Sep 29 | 15.00N | 70.00W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
