Current Location: 10.2N, 43.9W
Geographic Reference: 1075 miles ESE of Barbados
Movement: West at 20 mph
Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles
Organizational Trend: Increasing
Forecast Confidence: Average
Chance of Redevelopment: 70 percent
Key Points
1. Kirk may be upgraded to a tropical storm this evening if recent trends continue.
2. There is uncertainty regarding how organized Kirk will be when it tracks through the Windward Islands.
2. Kirk is predicted to dissipate in the eastern or central Caribbean Caribbean by Friday or Saturday.
Our Forecast
Kirk should begin to slow tomorrow and turn more to the west-northwest. Our forecast is for Kirk to move a little to the north of Barbados Thursday afternoon. It should move through the remainder of the Windward Islands on Thursday evening. The west-northwest motion should continue as Kirk moves into the Caribbean.
Kirk is expected to approach the islands as a tropical storm. There is some uncertainty regarding how organized the system will be when it reaches the islands. It may lose its low level circulation thus losing its tropical storm status. Regardless of the scenario, heavy thunderstorms capable of producing tropical storm force winds will be possible on Thursday.
Expected Impacts on Land
Windward Islands: Localized flooding may occur due to heavy rains. Any power outages are likely to isolated in nature.
Our next advisory will be issued by 4 AM AST / 3 AM CDT
Meteorologist: Cameron Self
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 10PM CDT Mon Sep 24 | 10.20N | 43.90W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Remnant Low | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 12 | 10AM CDT Tue Sep 25 | 10.80N | 47.30W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 24 | 10PM CDT Tue Sep 25 | 11.30N | 50.80W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 36 | 10AM CDT Wed Sep 26 | 12.00N | 53.80W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 48 | 10PM CDT Wed Sep 26 | 12.70N | 56.30W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 60 | 10AM CDT Thu Sep 27 | 13.40N | 58.70W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 72 | 10PM CDT Thu Sep 27 | 14.00N | 61.20W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 84 | 10AM CDT Fri Sep 28 | 14.20N | 63.80W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 96 | 10PM CDT Fri Sep 28 | 14.30N | 66.30W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 1 | 1 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
