Geographic Reference: 45 miles SSW of Cozumel, MX
Movement: North at 7 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 90 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady – no changes past 6 hours
Forecast Confidence: Below Average
Key Points
1. Disturbance 3 is predicted to become a weak tropical storm in the eastern Gulf on Saturday.
2. Strong southwesterly wind shear should keep most squalls and stronger wind east of the track.
3. Heavy rain is possible from the Florida Peninsula north into Georgia and Alabama between Friday and Monday.
4. Little impact is expected from the mouth of the Mississippi west to Texas.
Our Forecast
Disturbance 3 (Invest 90L) continues moving slowly northward across the northwest Caribbean. We have relocated the disturbance center to the west along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, though it remains quite poorly-defined. Strong westerly wind shear is impacting the disturbance, keeping most squalls well to the east of the low pressure area. That wind shear is predicted to continue as the disturbance tracks northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next 3-4 days. However, we think that the wind shear across the northeast Gulf may decrease just enough by Saturday afternoon that the disturbance could be classified as a tropical depression or possibly a tropical storm prior to moving inland on Sunday.
There remain considerable uncertainty as to the precise track of the disturbance across the eastern Gulf. Model guidance is indicating potential landfall anywhere from southeast Louisiana to the southwest Florida Peninsula. Our track is close to the mean of the European and American ensemble members. However, we should stress that we are not expecting heaviest squalls to be located near the center. The heavy squalls will likely extend hundreds of miles to the east of the track across the Florida Peninsula over the next several days then into Georgia, Alabama, and possibly southern Mississippi over the holiday weekend. This heavy rain is expected regardless of whether or not the disturbance is ever upgraded to a depression or a tropical storm. Widespread heavy rain may cause significant travel issues across the southeast U.S. between Friday and Monday.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Eastern Gulf of Mexico (east of 88W) – Widespread squalls Friday to Sunday morning with wind gusts to 50 kts possible, along with rough seas at times.
Expected Impacts Onshore
Florida Peninsula – Widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur Friday through Sunday, resulting in street flooding and travel issues.
Florida Panhandle to Southern Georgia and Alabama – Heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur from Sunday through Monday, resulting in travel issues.
Our next advisory will be issued by 9PM CDT.
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert
| Forecast Confidence: Below Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 3PM CDT Wed May 23 | 19.70N | 87.30W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 3AM CDT Thu May 24 | 20.90N | 87.40W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | 3PM CDT Thu May 24 | 22.30N | 87.30W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 36 | 3AM CDT Fri May 25 | 23.60N | 87.10W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 48 | 3PM CDT Fri May 25 | 24.70N | 86.70W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 60 | 3AM CDT Sat May 26 | 25.80N | 86.40W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 72 | 3PM CDT Sat May 26 | 27.10N | 86.10W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 84 | 3AM CDT Sun May 27 | 28.40N | 85.90W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 96 | 3PM CDT Sun May 27 | 29.90N | 85.90W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 108 | 3AM CDT Mon May 28 | 31.00N | 86.30W | 35 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 120 | 3PM CDT Mon May 28 | 32.00N | 87.40W | 25 mph | 30 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
