The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) released this update to document the low river stage conditions. The LMRFC provided the following text to supplement this update that details low water stage predictions from Cairo (IL) to Baton Rouge (LA).
“Beneficial rainfall has occurred over parts of the Ohio, Missouri, and middle Mississippi Valleys and rises are expected on the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Rivers.
The lower Ohio River at Cairo, IL has been fluctuating between 7 and 9 feet over the last week. The stage reading this morning was 9.2 feet. The lower Ohio River at Cairo, IL is forecast to rise over 6 feet and crest at 15.5 feet by early next week. If the stage at Cairo, IL rises above 15 feet, this would be the first time it has reached this height since the middle of August.
The lower Mississippi River continues to see low water conditions with the lowest levels occurring between Vicksburg, MS and Natchez, MS. Locations downstream should see the lowest levels from this current fall over the next couple of days.
Minor rises on the lower Arkansas River have kept the lower Mississippi River between Arkansas City, AR to Vicksburg, MS from falling any further.
The rises from the Ohio and middle Mississippi Rivers will continue downstream on the lower Mississippi River over the next few weeks and crests will not occur until the second week of January.
The 16 day future rainfall model is showing slightly higher stages for next week’s crest on the lower Ohio River and the model keeps Cairo, IL above 10 feet through the third week of January.
Since the river forecast is showing some decent rises on the lower Ohio River, we will pause our updates through the remainder of the year and update again if low water conditions resume after the rise in January.” (Emphasis supplied)
The Carrolton Gage (New Orleans) reading at 1300 hours today was 1.38 feet with a 24-hour change of – 0.36 feet.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service Extended Streamflow Prediction (28-Day) for the Carrollton Gage issued today forecasts stages will quickly rise (the latest reading is most likely influednced by tide and wind) as the stage tomorrow is forecast to be 2.5 feet followed by an erratic rise to 4.1 feet on January 12 followed by a slow fall to 3.5 feet on January 24 (2024). Long-range forecasts only include precipitation expected to fall in the next 48-hours.
