The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) released this update on river stage conditions (today).
“Minor flooding has ended on the lower Mississippi River.
One to two inches of rainfall is expected over the Ohio Valley during the next couple of days. This will generate a minor rise of a few feet on the lower Ohio River.
Snowmelt rises are continuing on the upper Mississippi River. The volume of water associated with these rises is not enough to generate flooding on the lower Mississippi River since the channel capacity is much larger.
The 16 day future rainfall guidance continues to show additional rises for the first and second week of May. The rises are associated with snowmelt and 16 days of future rainfall. Right now, the renewed crests are well below flood levels.” (Emphasis supplied)
The Carrolton Gage (New Orleans) reading at 1100 hours today was 9.65 feet with a 24-hour change of – 0.61 feet. The stages at the Carrollton Gage are predicted to steadily fall to 7.5 feet on May 24 (2023).
The graphs below are the latest 2 and 16 Day river stage forecasts for Cairo (IL) and New Orleans (LA) as reproduced from NOAA’s National Weather Service website (today). Cairo shows a predicted rise ongoing as forecast for New Orleans over the next few weeks indicate receding stages with the flow downriver increasing stages above 10 feet as the rise comes from rain and snowmelt across the Midwest traveling downriver on a falling stage.
(Flooding in the Midwest from precipitation will drive the forecasted rise that is not expected to be as high as previous river stages this year, the Carrollton Gage has been over 13 feet twice in 2023 [mid-March and mid-April] and a rise above 13 feet is not likely to occur in the near future.)