The Historical Low Water Events Update provided today by our colleagues from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) is here.
The Carrollton Gage (New Orleans) reading at 1000 hours today was 2.10 feet with a 24-hour change of + 0.19 feet. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service Extended Streamflow Prediction (28-Day) for the Carrollton Gage issued today forecast stages will slowly and erratically rise to 4.0 feet on December 26 and then begin a slow fall with stages forecast to remain greater than 2.7 feet on January 6, 2023.
The following details are reproduced from the email containing the attached report:
“Rainfall events over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys continue to help low water conditions on the lower Mississippi River.
Rainfall this past week is causing another 2 to 3 ft rise on the lower Ohio River. Cairo, IL is expected to crest near 21.0ft for early next week. Rises will continue downstream with peak levels not occurring until the third week of December for Baton Rouge, LA and New Orleans, LA.
Early next week, a strong cold front will produce an extensive area of 1 to 4 inches of rainfall over the middle and lower Mississippi, Tennessee, lower Ohio, and lower Missouri Valleys. The runoff should continue to alleviate low water conditions on the lower Mississippi River.
The 16 day future rainfall model continues to show significant rises on the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers with peaks occurring for the third week of December. The peaks would be the highest of the Fall and keep stages well above low water levels through the first week of January.”