Current Location: 21.4N, 88.5W
Geographic Reference: Over the Northern Yucatan
Movement: Northwest at 12 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 35 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 75 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Chance of Development: 75 percent.
Key Points
1. Disturbance 37 is predicted to become a tropical storm with max sustained wind up to 45 mph at landfall in south Texas.
2. Whether or not the disturbance develops, it will produce gusty winds, heavy squalls, and rough seas across portions of the northwest Gulf lease areas from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday morning.
3. Heavy rain is likely for the mid to upper Texas coast from Thursday through Saturday.
Our Forecast
The disturbance remains very disorganized over the northern Yucatan Peninsula this morning. There are no signs of a developing circulation center. Squalls extend out to over 320 miles northeast of the disturbance center, all the way into the east central Gulf. As the disturbance moves northwestward, the squalls will reach the southeast Louisiana deepwater areas tomorrow and the deepwater areas off the lower Texas coast on Thursday.
Our forecast has not changed much in this advisory. We think that the disturbance will start to become better organized on Thursday as it approaches the lower Texas coast. A tropical depression will likely form on Thursday afternoon or Thursday night. Max sustained winds could reach 45 mph prior to the center moving ashore a little south of Corpus Christi around noon on Friday.
Once inland, it should quickly weaken to a depression and then a remnant low as it tracks toward the Big Bend area. We do not expect any sustained tropical storm-force wind to extend inland beyond the beach areas. The greatest threat inland will be from heavy rainfall due to the abundant Gulf moisture and slow movement of the low center.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Offshore Texas: Squalls are expected to move into the deepwater areas by Thursday morning and spread northwest to the coast by late Thursday. Wind gusts to 60 mph are possible in heavier squalls, along with locally rough seas.
Expected Impacts Inland
Lower to Middle Texas Coast: Heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday through Saturday. Travel delays are expected. Minor flood damage may also occur in isolated locations.
Our next advisory will be issued by 3 PM CDT
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9AM CDT Tue Sep 11 | 21.40N | 88.50W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | 9AM CDT Wed Sep 12 | 24.10N | 91.70W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 48 | 9AM CDT Thu Sep 13 | 25.90N | 94.60W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 72 | 9AM CDT Fri Sep 14 | 27.20N | 96.80W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 78 | 3PM CDT Fri Sep 14 | 27.50N | 97.30W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 84 | 9PM CDT Fri Sep 14 | 27.70N | 97.80W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 96 | 9AM CDT Sat Sep 15 | 28.60N | 99.40W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 108 | 9PM CDT Sat Sep 15 | 29.40N | 101.00W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 120 | 9AM CDT Sun Sep 16 | 30.00N | 102.60W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
