Current Location: 19N, 86W
Geographic Reference: Over the Northwest Caribbean
Movement: Northwest at 10 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 35 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 50 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Chance of Development: 70 percent.
Key Points
1. Whether or not the disturbance develops, it will produce gusty wind, heavy squalls, and rough seas across the northwest Gulf lease areas on from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning.
2. Heavy rain is likely for the mid to upper Texas coast on Thursday and Friday.
Our Forecast
Squalls associated with Disturbance 37 over the northwest Caribbean Sea have become more concentrated over the past 12 hours, which is a sign that development chances are increasing. The disturbance will be tracking across the Yucatan Peninsula over the next 24 hours and emerging into the southern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow evening. Once in the Gulf, it will encounter an environment that would be a little more favorable for development. We think that there is about a 70 percent chance that this disturbance will develop a circulation center and become a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm before it moves ashore into the lower Texas coast near Corpus Christi late Friday afternoon.
The disturbance will spread heavy squalls into the northwest Gulf lease areas by Wednesday afternoon. These squalls may produce wind gusts up to 60 mph and locally rough seas, regardless of whether or not the disturbance develops into a tropical depression or storm. The system should move inland into the lower to mid Texas coast on Friday afternoon/evening, quite possibly as a weak tropical storm. The main threat inland across Texas will be from heavy rainfall, not wind.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Offshore Texas: Squalls moving into the deepwater areas during the afternoon on Wednesday and spreading northwest to the coast on Thursday afternoon. Wind gusts to 60 mph in heavier squalls, along with locally rough seas.
Expected Impacts Inland
Lower to Middle Texas Coast: Heavy showers and thunderstorms moving ashore Thursday and Friday, resulting in localized flooding issues and travel delays.
Our next advisory will be issued by 9 PM CDT
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 3PM CDT Mon Sep 10 | 19.00N | 86.00W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | 3PM CDT Tue Sep 11 | 21.00N | 89.00W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 48 | 3PM CDT Wed Sep 12 | 23.40N | 91.90W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 72 | 3PM CDT Thu Sep 13 | 25.60N | 94.40W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 96 | 3PM CDT Fri Sep 14 | 27.50N | 96.90W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 120 | 3PM CDT Sat Sep 15 | 28.30N | 99.30W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
