Tropical Cyclone Development Outlook

Active Systems

Name Max Wind Classification Lat Lon
Florence 140 mph Category 4 26.3N 63.7W
Helene 110 mph Category 2 15.8N 33.2W
Isaac 70 mph Tropical Storm 14.5N 48.1W
37 30 mph Tropical Disturbance 20.0N 87.5W

Florence
Hurricane Florence is located 1000 miles to the east-southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina. It is moving to the west-northwest at 14 mph. Maximum winds are near 140 mph. Florence is forecast to move into the North Carolina coast as a category 4 hurricane late Thursday night into early Friday morning, resulting in significant impacts from high wind, storm surge, and flooding. Afterward, the forward speed of Florence will slow down and may produce a catastrophic flood event across portions of North Carolina and Virginia late this week into this weekend. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for further details.

Helene
Hurricane Helene is located 620 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. It is moving to the west-northwest at 12 mph. It remains a strong category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Helene is forecast to become a category 3 hurricane this morning. Thereafter, gradual weakening is expected. Helene could affect the Azores in a little more than 5 days as a strong tropical storm. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for further details.

Isaac
Isaac is located 865 miles to the east of Martinique. It could become a hurricane again within the next 12 to 24 hours. However, it will weaken to a tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Isaac will produce heavy rainfall and wind gusts to hurricane force across portions of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Once Isaac moves past the Lesser Antilles on Thursday afternoon, we expect it to slowly weaken to a remnant low this weekend as it passes to the south of Haiti and Jamaica. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for further details.

37
Disturbance 37 is centered near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Squalls persist in the northwest Caribbean with the disturbance. However, these squalls remain east of the surface feature due to strong wind shear. The shear is expected to decrease a little over the next few days as the disturbance moves to the northwest across the Gulf of Mexico the next 2 to 3 days. There is a 75 percent chance of tropical development. If development occurs, the most likely scenario would be for the system to be a tropical depression or a weak to moderate tropical storm before moving into the lower or middle Texas coast Friday night. Regardless of tropical development, strong wind gusts, likely up to 60 mph, heavy thunderstorms, and rough seas are likely for the offshore lease blocks in the northwest Gulf of Mexico. In addition, heavy rains are likely for much of the Texas coast. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for further details.

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
An area of non-tropical low pressure has formed to the west of the Azores. This has been identified as Disturbance 38. Some slow subtropical or tropical development is possible with the system late this week as it moves to the southwest. The chance of tropical development is estimated at near 50 percent. The system is forecast to meander out to the west of the Azores next weekend and not affect any land areas.

Disturbance 39 has been identified over western African coast along 15W. It is forecast to move off the African coast tonight into Wednesday. There is a 10 percent chance of tropical development over the next seven days. It will enhance showers and thunderstorms across the Cape Verde Islands later this week.

Meteorologist: Claude Aultman