Tropical Cyclone Development Outlook

Active Systems

Name Max Wind Classification Lat Lon
Florence 105 mph Category 2 24.9N 59.0W
Helene 85 mph Category 1 14.0N 28.6W
Isaac 75 mph Category 1 14.6N 42.6W

Florence
Hurricane Florence is centered about 1300 miles to the east-southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina. Our forecast takes Florence northwestward and inland into the North Carolina coast Thursday evening as a category 3 hurricane. Florence is forecast to slow down after moving inland Friday into next weekend and may cause a major inland flood event across portions of North Carolina and southern Virginia. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for further details.

Helene
Hurricane Helene is located in the far eastern Atlantic about 300 miles to the west of the southern Cape Verde Islands. Helene should track out to sea to the northwest and turn to the north in 3 days. Helene is forecast to pass to the west of the Azores next weekend. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for further details.

Isaac
Hurricane Isaac is centered about 1225 miles to the east of Martinique. Isaac is forecast to track westward over the next few days and track near Dominica and Guadeloupe on Thursday morning as a hurricane or strong tropical storm. Isaac will encounter increasing wind shear after entering the Caribbean and will weaken to a remnant low in the central Caribbean next weekend. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for further details.

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 37 is located over the northwestern Caribbean. The disturbance is producing a large area of heavy squalls across the northwest Caribbean, but there are no indications of a circulation center developing. The disturbance will move into the south-central Gulf on Tuesday then track slowly northward and into the Texas coast by Thursday or Friday. Some model guidance indicates slow development over the western Gulf while others show no development. The system will produce squalls with wind gusts to 50-60 mph across portions of the northwest Gulf on Wednesday into Thursday. The disturbance may bring heavy rain to the Texas coast by Thursday into Friday. The chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm has increased from 20 percent to 30 percent.

An area of non-tropical low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles to the west-southwest of the Azores by the middle of this week. Some slow subtropical or tropical development is possible with the system late this week as it moves to the southwest. The chance of tropical development is estimated at near 40 percent. The system is forecast to meander out to the east of Bermuda next weekend and not affect any land areas.

Meteorologists: Claude Aultman / Derek Ortt