Tropical Cyclone Development Outlook

Active Systems

Name Max Wind Classification Lat Lon
Florence 70 mph Tropical Storm 19.3N 42.0W
Gordon 65 mph Tropical Storm 27.7N 85.7W

Florence
Tropical Storm Florence is about 1300 miles east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles. The system’s intensity is just below hurricane strength. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph. It is moving west-northwest near 13 mph. Though it is possible that the system could briefly attain hurricane strength within the next few hours, it is likely nearing a time in which it will begin to weaken for a couple days before resuming its strengthening trend. It is possible that it could track near Bermuda in 7-9 days. However, the forecast certainty that far out is low. Please see our latest advisory for more details.

Gordon
Tropical Storm Gordon is centered about 230 miles to the east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds near the center are about 65 mph. It is moving to the west-northwest near 17 mph. Though we cannot rule out Gordon strengthening into a hurricane before reaching the Mississippi Coast tonight, our forecast continues to keep Gordon just below hurricane intensity. Regardless of whether or not it is a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane, Gordon will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, problematic coastal flooding, and heavy rainfall induced flooding. The difference in impacts between a strong tropical storm and minimal hurricane is small. Please see our latest advisory for more details.

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 31 is over Hispaniola producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. The system will continue to track westward. It is expected to remain weak and not develop.

Disturbance 33 is along 23W. It moving west near 10 mph. A west, and at times west-northwest, motion is expected over the next 7 days. At this time we are giving the disturbance a relatively high (60 percent) chance of development. There is some model guidance that favors a disturbance that will emerge off the coast of Africa in a few days while keeping Disturbance 33 weaker. If the system were to enter the Caribbean, it could take 8-10 days for it to do so.

Meteorologists: Cameron Self / George Harvey