Tropical Storm Gordon Track Chart, Advisory #11

Current Location: 27.6N, 85.5W
Geographic Reference: 295 miles SE of Gulfport, MS
Movement: West-northwest at 16 mph
Max Winds: 65 mph gusting to 80 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 6 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 4 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 65 miles
Organizational Trend: Increasing slowly
Forecast Confidence: Average

Key Points
1. While we continue to forecast that Gordon will strike Mississippi as a very strong tropical storm, it could very well become a hurricane.
2. Gordon is likely to slow a little after landfall. Thus, there remains a risk of inland flooding.
3. Tropical storm force winds are expected to be confined to within 65 miles of the center.

Our Forecast
Despite a poor appearance on satellite imagery, aircraft data indicate that Gordon has intensified slightly. Winds are now 65 mph based upon recent dropsonde data. Slight intensification is forecast as Gordon approaches the northern Gulf coast. Our forecast continues to be for winds of 70 mph at landfall. However, we cannot rule out Gordon becoming a category 1 hurricane. There remains a 40 percent chance that Gordon will become a hurricane before landfall. It must be stressed that the strongest winds will be confined very close to the center, likely within 5 to 10 miles of the eye. Even tropical storm force winds are not expected to extend more than 65 miles from the center. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected.

There has been little change to the forecast track before landfall. Landfall is expected to occur tonight in Mississippi. The longer range track has been adjusted eastward a bit. We no longer indicate that the remnant low will move into Oklahoma. Instead, a northwestward motion should continue through Friday, keeping the center in Arkansas. There will be a slowing of the forward motion toward the end of the week. Thus, there is a chance of inland flooding.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Squalls are starting to affect some of the deepwater lease areas. Conditions will gradually deteriorate through the morning. Wind gusts in squalls could reach up to 80 mph today, along with locally very rough seas.

Expected Impacts on Land
Southern Mississippi Through Arkansas: Locally heavy rainfall could result in street flooding that leads to travel delays this afternoon through Friday. The greatest risk for southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi will be today and tomorrow, while the risk for Arkansas will mainly be Thursday and Friday. Strong winds will likely cause widespread power outages near where the center makes landfall, along with minor wind damage. Coastal flooding is also expected.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by 6 AM CDT. The next full advisory will be issued at 9 AM CDT.

Meteorologist: Derek Ortt

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 3AM CDT Tue Sep 04 27.60N 85.50W 65 mph 80 mph Tropical Storm 2 3 5
12 3PM CDT Tue Sep 04 29.50N 88.00W 70 mph 85 mph Tropical Storm 2 4 6
19 10PM CDT Tue Sep 04 30.40N 89.00W 70 mph 85 mph Tropical Storm 2 4 6
22 1AM CDT Wed Sep 05 30.90N 89.60W 60 mph 75 mph Tropical Storm 2 3 5
24 3AM CDT Wed Sep 05 31.30N 90.00W 50 mph 70 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
36 3PM CDT Wed Sep 05 32.40N 91.30W 35 mph 50 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
48 3AM CDT Thu Sep 06 33.30N 92.50W 30 mph 40 mph Tropical Depression 0 0 0
60 3PM CDT Thu Sep 06 33.80N 93.00W 30 mph 35 mph Tropical Depression 0 0 0
72 3AM CDT Fri Sep 07 34.40N 93.60W 30 mph 35 mph Tropical Depression 0 0 0
84 3PM CDT Fri Sep 07 35.00N 94.00W 30 mph 35 mph Tropical Depression 0 0 0

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.