Tropical Cyclone Development Outlook

Active Systems
None

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 13 is located over Southeast Texas this morning. Development is not expected but the disturbance will bring locally heavy rainfall to much of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana today. Rainfall rates will range from 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals up to 6 inches possible for some areas over the next 24 hours.

A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form near Bermuda over the next 12 to 24 hours. The low could acquire some tropical characteristics as it initially moves westward toward the southeastern U.S. A turn to the north and northeast will keep the system well away from the East Coast. It will merge with a frontal boundary by next weekend. There is a 30 percent chance it could become a depression or tropical storm before merging with the front. It will not affect any land areas.

Disturbance 11 is located in the western Caribbean Sea along 82W. It is moving westward at 15 mph. No tropical development is expected.

Disturbance 12 is located along 66W. It is moving westward at 20 mph. No tropical development is expected.

Disturbance 14 is located along 34W. It has developed a closed low pressure center and has a chance of becoming a depression or weak tropical storm over the next few days. It will track to the west-northwest and is expected to remain north of the Caribbean Sea and weaken into a disturbance next weekend or early the following week. Development chances are estimated at 20 percent.

Meteorologist: Jim Palmer