Tropical Cyclone Development Outlook

Active Systems
None

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 4 is located just east of the Yucatan Peninsula along 86W. There are no indications of improving organization, and overall conditions remain somewhat unfavorable. All guidance keeps it a weak system with a 15 percent chance of development as it nears the coast of northern Mexico and South Texas over the weekend. The system will bring a risk of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula today and tomorrow.

Disturbance 4 is forecast to enter the southwestern Gulf late today or early tomorrow morning. Regardless of any development, the disturbance will bring deep tropical moisture across the north-central and northwestern Gulf coast this weekend, resulting in enhanced thunderstorm activity across northeastern Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana this weekend into early next week.

Disturbance 6 is located along 71W and is moving westward near 30 mph. There are no signs of organization, and no development is expected. The disturbance will enhance rainfall across northwestern Venezuela and northern Colombia today.

Disturbance 7 has formed along 41W and is moving west at 20 mph. Conditions are unfavorable for development in its path, but it could bring increasing showers and thunderstorms to Trinidad and the southern Lesser Antilles over the weekend.

Meteorologist: Jim Palmer