Current Location: 20.3N, 87.5W
Geographic Reference: 40 miles WSW of Cozumel, MX
Movement: North at 6 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 90 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady – no changes past 6 hours
Forecast Confidence: Below Average

Key Points
1. Disturbance 3 is predicted to become a weak tropical storm in the eastern Gulf on Saturday.
2. Strong southwesterly wind shear should keep most squalls and stronger wind east of the track.
3. Heavy rain is possible from the Florida Peninsula north into Georgia and Alabama between Friday and Tuesday.
4. Little impact is expected from the mouth of the Mississippi west to Texas.

Our Forecast
The poorly organized center of Disturbance 3 (Invest 90L) is located over the northern Yucatan Peninsula this evening. There has been little change the organization of Disturbance 3 over the past several hours.

Strong westerly wind shear continues to impact the disturbance, displacing most of the squalls well to the east of the low pressure area. That wind shear is predicted to continue as the disturbance tracks northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next 3-4 days. However, we think that the wind shear across the northeast Gulf may decrease just enough during the day Saturday that the disturbance could be classified as a tropical depression or possibly a tropical storm prior to moving inland over the western Florida Panhandle on Sunday night. The chance of the system becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm is estimated at 80 percent.

There remain considerable uncertainty as to the precise track of the disturbance across the Gulf. Model guidance is indicating potential landfall anywhere from southeast Louisiana to the southwest Florida Peninsula. Our track was shifted westward on this advisory to remain near the mean of the European and American ensemble members. There was a westward shift of the American model ensemble members this afternoon that justified this change. However, we continue to stress that we are not expecting the heaviest squalls to be located near the center. The heavy squalls will likely extend hundreds of miles to the east of the track across the Florida Peninsula and eastern Florida Panhandle over the next several days then into Georgia, Alabama, and possibly southern Mississippi over the holiday weekend. This heavy rain is expected regardless of whether or not the disturbance is ever upgraded to a depression or a tropical storm. Widespread heavy rain may cause significant travel issues across the southeast U.S. between Friday and Tuesday.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Eastern Gulf of Mexico (east of 88W) – Widespread squalls Friday to late Sunday with wind gusts to 50 kts possible, along with rough seas at times.

Expected Impacts Onshore
Florida Peninsula – Widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur Friday through Sunday, resulting in street flooding and travel issues.
Florida Panhandle to Georgia and Alabama – Heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur from Sunday through Tuesday, resulting in travel issues.

Our next advisory will be issued by 3AM CDT.

Meteorologist: Claude Aultman

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.