Active Systems
None

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 3 is located over the northwest Caribbean Sea. There has been an increase in squalls this morning associated with the disturbance. However, they are east of the broad surface low pressure area. This is due to strong wind shear over the Caribbean. As the system moves northward into the Gulf, we expect that the wind shear will remain at least moderate in magnitude. Therefore, despite the increase in squalls, as well as the models continuing to indicate development, we are only raising the chance of development from 35 percent to 50 percent at this time.

The latest forecast is for the system to move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and then move toward the eastern Florida Panhandle or to the Florida Peninsula. There is little chance that the system will move toward the Texas coast. This means no significant impact is expected for Texas from the disturbance. The greatest impact is likely to occur in Florida as well as the southeast United States. Heavy rains are likely to affect much of the Florida Peninsula over the Memorial Day weekend. Isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out. These impacts are expected regardless as to whether or not the system becomes a tropical cyclone. The heavy rains could spread into the southeast United States by the start of next week.

Meteorologist: Derek Ortt / Chris Hebert