The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) released this update (today) to document the low river stage conditions. The LMRFC provided the following text along with the attachment for this update that details low water stage predictions from Cairo (IL) to Baton Rouge (LA).
“Again, no big changes but some hints of heavy rain potentially for late next week.
Very minor rises (1 foot) from the middle Mississippi River are showing up on portions of the lower Mississippi River. The peak of the rises are south of Memphis, TN and should approach the confluence with the Arkansas River over the weekend. The rises will likely dampen as they approach the lower portions of the river during the next week.
The lower Ohio River at Cairo, IL was at 6.4 ft this morning as it continues to fluctuate with lock/dam and power operations. The forecast shows Cairo, IL oscillating between 5.0 ft to 7.0 ft over the next several days.
The 7 day rainfall forecast is showing some encouraging signs. The forecast shows 1 to 3 inches of rainfall over the lower Missouri, middle Mississippi, and western portions of the Ohio Valley. The rainfall is projected for late next week and it is too soon to know how much runoff will be generated from this event. Hopefully this trend will continue in the coming days.
The 16 day rainfall forecast shows little improvement to the low water conditions. Cairo, IL is still forecast to reach the 5.0ft range by the end of October.” (Emphasis supplied)
The Carrolton Gage (New Orleans) reading at 1400 hours today was 3.2 feet with a 24-hour change of + 0.65 feet.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service Extended Streamflow Prediction (28-Day) for the Carrollton Gage issued today forecasts stages will continue a very slow fall but stay near 3.0 feet for much of the next month with 2.7 feet on November 3 (2023) (2.6 feet is the low reading occurring several times in late October).
Long-range forecasts only include precipitation expected to fall in the next 48-hours.
The highest crest in 2023 recorded on the Carrollton Gage was recorded April 13 at 14.10 feet and the lowest stage of the year was recorded at 1.47 feet on July 5, 2023.
