Tropical Cyclone Development Outlook

Active Systems

Name Max Wind Classification Lat Lon
Leslie 60 mph Tropical Storm 33.4N 53.9W

Leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie is located about 635 miles east of Bermuda. Leslie is moving to the west-southwest near 5 mph. Leslie is forecast to meander over the open Atlantic. There is no immediate threat to land. Winds have increased to near 60 mph. Leslie will gradually intensify into a hurricane by Tuesday. Please see our latest advisory on your client weather website for more information.

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
The remnants of Kirk are located in the western Caribbean along 82W. It is moving to the west at 20 mph. This motion is expected to continue. The wave axis will move into Central America today and enhance shower and thunderstorm activity. Redevelopment is not expected.

The monsoonal trough will become more active across the southwestern Caribbean for the middle to latter part of this week. A disturbance may form from this over the western Caribbean by the end of the week. There is a 20 percent chance of tropical development over the next seven days. Beyond 7 days, the long-range model guidance indicates that this disturbance may either move northward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico or move northeastward across Cuba and the Bahamas into the western North Atlantic. We think it is more likely that the potential system will move to the northeast across Cuba and the Bahamas into the Atlantic.

Disturbance 46 is located along 40W south of 10N. It is moving to the west at 23 mph. This motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for development. The disturbance is not expected to develop.

Meteorologists: Claude Aultman / David Piech