The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) released the update below today to document the low river stage conditions. The LMRFC provided the quoted text below along with the attachment to update historic low water readings and the updated river stage predictions from Cairo (IL) to Baton Rouge (LA).

“Cairo has dropped below 9 ft and we are anticipating a drop below 8 ft next week with a recession to low levels around 6.5  for the latter part of October and early November. Discharges are being regulated to mitigate lower stages at Cairo through the next week or so, but towards the end of October and early November, within our 28 day forecast window, we are seeing the potential for significant low stages in the 6.4 ft range at Cairo with no additional rainfall. 

Travel times from Cairo to the Lower Mississippi near Baton Rouge and New Orleans about a week after and these recessions will be making their way down the Mississippi for the upcoming future as we enter our climatologically drier months of October and November.Our extended range forecast using 16-days of NAEFS future forecast rainfall is also not showing any significant rainfall in the next two weeks that would turn things around or stop the recession. (Emphasis supplied)

The supporting information below was prepared by the Big River Coalition:

The Carrolton Gage (New Orleans) reading at 1300 hours today was 3.3 feet with a 24-hour change of – 0.10 feet.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service Extended Streamflow Prediction (28-Day) for the Carrollton Gage issued today forecasts stages will continue a slow fall to 2.2 feet on November 12 (2024).

Long-range forecasts only include precipitation expected to fall in the next 48-hours.