The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) released this update (today) to document the low river stage conditions. The LMRFC provided the following text along with the attachment for this update that details low water stage predictions from Cairo (IL) to Baton Rouge (LA).
“The lower Ohio River had a large stage fluctuation over the weekend which caused a number of locations to exceed their all time record low stages. All time record lows were set for Cairo, IL (4.5ft), New Madrid, MO (-6.4ft), and Caruthersville, MO (-2.6ft).
The lower Ohio River has risen a couple of feet from the low stages this weekend and forecasts are showing the river oscillating between 5.0ft to 6.5ft over the next few days.
The falls from the lower Ohio River have reached their lowest point near Osceola, AR and should reach Memphis,TN tomorrow. Memphis, TN will likely break the all time record low tomorrow with a forecast stage of -11.3ft. The falls will continue to move downstream over the next week.
The 7 day rainfall forecast continues to show heavy rainfall but the location has shifted further north from last week’s forecast. The forecast shows 1 to 3 inches of rainfall from the Dakotas extending east through the Great Lakes.
The 16 day rainfall forecast is responding to the heavy rain event further north. The river model is showing a minor rise of a couple of feet for Cairo, IL by the end of the month. If the rainfall and runoff materialize, it would provide some minor temporary rises on the lower Mississippi River going into the first week of November.” (Emphasis supplied)
The Carrolton Gage (New Orleans) reading at 1400 hours today was 2.93 feet with a 24-hour change of + 0.08 feet.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service Extended Streamflow Prediction (28-Day) for the Carrollton Gage issued today forecasts stages will continue a very short rise to 2.7 feet by this weekend and remain steady a few days and then begin a slow fall to 2.5 feet on November 7 (2023).