The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) released an update to document the low river stage conditions (today). The LMRFC provided the following text along with the attachment for today’s update that details low water stages from Cairo (IL) to Baton Rouge (LA).
“So far this summer, each time we start to reach critical levels on the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Rivers; a rain event provides temporary relief. Today is no exception with heavy rain over the state of Missouri causing a beneficial rise on the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Rivers.
Additional rainfall is expected for the remainder of the week with 1 to 4 inches of rainfall forecast over lower Missouri Valley extending southeast into the Tennessee Valley.
The current forecast is showing rises of 5 to 6 feet at the junction of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers with peak stages occurring for early next week. The rises should continue downstream on the lower Mississippi River over the next couple of weeks.
The 16 day future rainfall model is showing slightly higher stages on the lower Ohio River and Cario, IL it is not expected to fall below 10ft until the third week of August.
Attached is a graphic comparing previous low water conditions to our lowest forecast stage in the next 28 days.” (Emphasis supplied)
The Carrolton Gage (New Orleans) reading at 1300 hours today was 3.63 feet with a 24-hour change of – 0.14 feet.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service Extended Streamflow Prediction (28-Day) for the Carrollton Gage issued today forecasts stages will continue a slow erratic fall for a couple of days before beginning a slow rise back to 2.6 feet before resuming a slow fall to 2.0 feet on August 30 (2023).
However, precipitation projected over the next 72-hours will most likely lead to a rise in the 28-day prediction over the next few days. The highest crest in 2023 on the Carrollton Gage was recorded at 2400 hours on April 13 at 14.10 feet. Long-range forecasts only include precipitation expected to fall in the next 48-hours.
