A forecast update provided by our colleagues from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) is here. Highlights from today’s update specific to the areas along the Mississippi River Ship Channel are reproduced below (listed in bold):
Over the past weekend, heavy rain fell over the middle Mississippi and Missouri Valleys causing renewed rises on the middle Mississippi River. Rises of 3 to 4 feet will continue through Friday with minor flooding occurring at Cape Girardeau, MO and Thebes, IL.
The rises from the middle Mississippi River will be dampen by the falls on the Cumberland and Tennessee Rivers. As a result, the lower Ohio River should only have slight rises over the next 5 days and remain below flood stage.
On the lower Mississippi River, falls of 1 to 1 ½ feet are occurring from New Madrid, MO to Mhoon Landing, MS. Minor flooding has ended above the junction with the Arkansas River. Falls of 2 to 5 feet will continue over the next 5 days.
Moderate flooding continues from Natchez, MS downstream to Baton Rouge, LA. Upstream falls will progress downstream and moderate flooding should end at all locations by the end of the weekend. Falls will continue through the rest of the month and minor flooding should end on the lower Mississippi River by the end of April.
Heavy rain is forecast in south Louisiana over the next couple of days and minor rises of a few tenths are possible from Red River Landing, LA downstream to New Orleans, LA.
The 16 day future rainfall guidance is showing the same minor rises on the lower Ohio River and all locations on the lower Mississippi River continue to show falls through the first week of May.
The Carrollton Gauge at New Orleans indicates near cresting levels to remain the next few days, the latest crest of 14.97 feet was recorded at 0800 hours on April 10, 2021. The stage at 1100 hours today was 14.83 feet, the long range forecasts indicate stages remaining steady for a few days as this system moves across the Lower Mississippi River Basin followed by a slow steady fall to 7.7 feet on May 11, 2021.