Below is the latest information on the tropical weather Disturbance 47 in the GOM.
Highlights include:

Key Points 
1. Disturbance 47 is predicted to become a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening. 
2. Landfall is predicted to be east of Pensacola, FL Wednesday evening as a 65 mph tropical storm. 
3. Heaviest squalls and most tropical storm-force winds will likely be located east of the track. 
4. There is an increasing chance that the disturbance may be near hurricane intensity at landfall.

Changes from previous updates:

  • One consistency in model runs over the past 12 hours is the prediction of a stronger storm at landfall on the northern Gulf Coast. 
  • In fact, all of the main global models are indicating that Disturbance 47 will strengthen into a hurricane prior to landfall.
  • We have increased the predicted intensity at landfall to 65 mph in this advisory.
  • The other change to this advisory was to indicate a faster forward speed across the Gulf, which results in landfall closer to noon on Wednesday rather than in the evening.
Expected Impacts Inland 
Southeast Louisiana: On the current forecast track, the heavy squalls should pass east of Louisiana. No significant impacts would be felt there.
 
LAMA will forward any information regarding any interruption to navigation upon receipt.
Disturbance 47 Track Chart, Advisory #6

Current Location: 18.1N, 86.1W
Geographic Reference: 180 miles SSE of Cozumel, MX
Movement: North at 4 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 75 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady – Poorly-Organized
Forecast Confidence: AverageChance of Development: 90 percent

Key Points
1. Disturbance 47 is predicted to become a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening.
2. Landfall is predicted to be east of Pensacola, FL Wednesday evening as a 65 mph tropical storm.
3. Heaviest squalls and most tropical storm-force winds will likely be located east of the track.
4. There is an increasing chance that the disturbance may be near hurricane intensity at landfall.

Our Forecast
One consistency that we have seen in model runs over the past 12 hours is the prediction of a stronger storm at landfall on the northern Gulf Coast. In fact, all of the main global models are indicating that Disturbance 47 will strengthen into a hurricane prior to landfall, despite the fact that there may be moderate wind shear across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This raises some doubt as to the strength of the predicted wind shear in the path of Disturbance 47 as it crosses the central and northern Gulf next week. While we are not yet ready to predict that the disturbance will be a hurricane at landfall, we do think that the chances of a strong tropical storm or a hurricane are increasing. We have increased the predicted intensity at landfall to 65 mph in this advisory.

The other change that we have made in this advisory was to indicate a faster forward speed across the Gulf, which results in landfall closer to noon on Wednesday rather than in the evening. However, the timing of landfall remains quite uncertain. Models are indicating that landfall could occur as early as Tuesday night, or as late as noon on Thursday. Our forecast is toward the middle of model guidance as far as the landfall timing.

Once inland, the storm should quickly weaken to a tropical depression in southeastern Alabama. We indicate that the depression will transition to a non-tropical low pressure system over eastern Tennessee by Thursday afternoon. The main threat inland will be from heavy rainfall rather than strong winds. The heavy rain could spread into the Carolinas on Thursday, reaching areas hard-hit by Hurricane Florence.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Lund, Atwater, and Mississippi Canyon Eastward: Squalls reaching the deepwater areas off the southeast Louisiana coast during the early afternoon on Tuesday, making Monday possibly the last guaranteed full day of good flying weather.

Walker Ridge, Green Canyon, and Ship Shoal: Squalls should generally pass to the east of this area, though we cannot rule out any thunderstorm activity during the day on Tuesday and on Wednesday.

Expected Impacts Inland
Southeast Louisiana: On the current forecast track, the heavy squalls should pass east of Louisiana. No significant impacts would be felt there.

Mississippi Coast: Heaviest squalls should pass to the east of Mississippi on Wednesday. However, any track shift back to the west could bring heavy squalls to the Mississippi coast on Wednesday.

Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Mid-Florida Panhandle: Heavy squalls likely on Wednesday, particularly east of the track across the Florida Panhandle. Tides may increase to 3-5 feet above normal, causing coastal flooding. Heavy rain may cause travel issues.

Our next advisory will be issued by 9 PM CDT.

Meteorologists: Chris Hebert / Jim Palmer

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 3PM CDT Sat Oct 06 18.10N 86.10W 30 mph 40 mph Tropical Disturbance 0 0 0
24 3PM CDT Sun Oct 07 19.50N 86.30W 30 mph 40 mph Tropical Disturbance 0 0 0
36 3AM CDT Mon Oct 08 21.00N 86.30W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Disturbance 0 1 1
48 3PM CDT Mon Oct 08 22.40N 86.80W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
60 3AM CDT Tue Oct 09 24.20N 87.20W 45 mph 60 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
72 3PM CDT Tue Oct 09 26.30N 87.80W 50 mph 65 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
84 3AM CDT Wed Oct 10 28.60N 87.70W 60 mph 70 mph Tropical Storm 2 3 5
90 9AM CDT Wed Oct 10 29.90N 87.00W 65 mph 75 mph Tropical Storm 2 3 5
96 3PM CDT Wed Oct 10 31.20N 86.30W 45 mph 60 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
108 3AM CDT Thu Oct 11 33.20N 84.90W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
120 3PM CDT Thu Oct 11 36.00N 83.20W 30 mph 35 mph Extratropical Low 0 0 0

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.