Key Points
1. Disturbance 47 is predicted to become a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening.
2. Landfall is predicted to be near Pensacola, FL Wednesday evening as a 60 mph tropical storm.
3. Heaviest squalls and most tropical storm-force winds will likely be located east of the track.
4. An eastward track adjustment is possible in the next advisory.
Expected Impacts Inland
Southeast Louisiana:
- On the current forecast track, the heavy squalls should pass east of Louisiana.
- However, any track shift westward could bring heavy squalls to southeast Louisiana late Tuesday and on Wednesday.
Mississippi to the Mid-Florida Panhandle:
- Heavy squalls likely on Wednesday, particularly east of the track across the Florida Panhandle.
- Tides may increase to 3-5 feet above normal, causing coastal flooding. Heavy rain may cause travel issues.
Current Location: 17.7N, 85.8W
Geographic Reference: 195 miles SSE of Cozumel, MX
Movement: North-northwest at 4 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 80 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady – Poorly-Organized
Forecast Confidence: Average
Chance of Development: 90 percent
Key Points
1. Disturbance 47 is predicted to become a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening.
2. Landfall is predicted to be near Pensacola, FL Wednesday evening as a 60 mph tropical storm.
3. Heaviest squalls and most tropical storm-force winds will likely be located east of the track.
4. An eastward track adjustment is possible in the next advisory.
Our Forecast
There are no major changes in this advisory. We did nudge the predicted landfall a little to the east – to near Pensacola, Florida on Wednesday evening. However, there is still a great deal of uncertainty as to where the center will eventually make landfall. This potential tropical storm could still move inland anywhere from the Mississippi Coast to the northern Florida Peninsula.
Overnight model guidance has not come into any better agreement on the track or potential intensity of this disturbance. We do see a few trends in the models, however. An increasing number of models are indicating an eventual landfall east of Alabama. In addition, more models are indicating a stronger storm at landfall. Though we did adjust the landfall a little to the east, our track is not as far to the east as model guidance is indicating. If the current trend continues, then we may be adjusting the track eastward in our next advisory.
We did not increase the predicted intensity in this advisory. There is still a big question as to the amount of wind shear present across the central and northern Gulf next week. The models may not be taking this wind shear into account very well. If the storm should encounter less wind shear than is currently predicted, then it is possible that the storm could become stronger than we are predicting.
Once inland, the storm should quickly weaken to a remnant low pressure area over Georgia. The main threat inland will be from heavy rainfall rather than strong winds. The heavy rain could spread into the Carolinas on Thursday and Friday, reaching areas hard-hit by Hurricane Florence.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Lund, Atwater, and Mississippi Canyon Eastward: Squalls reaching the deepwater areas off the southeast Louisiana coast during the afternoon or evening on Tuesday, making Monday possibly the last guaranteed full day of good flying weather. However, it is possible that the onset of squalls may not occur until after sunset on Tuesday.
Walker Ridge, Green Canyon, and Ship Shoal: Squalls should generally pass to the east of this area, though we cannot rule out any thunderstorm activity during the day on Tuesday and on Wednesday.
Expected Impacts Inland
Southeast Louisiana: On the current forecast track, the heavy squalls should pass east of Louisiana. However, any track shift westward could bring heavy squalls to southeast Louisiana late Tuesday and on Wednesday.
Mississippi to the Mid-Florida Panhandle: Heavy squalls likely on Wednesday, particularly east of the track across the Florida Panhandle. Tides may increase to 3-5 feet above normal, causing coastal flooding. Heavy rain may cause travel issues.
Our next advisory will be issued by 3 PM CDT.
Meteorologists: Chris Hebert / Jim Palmer
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9AM CDT Sat Oct 06 | 17.70N | 85.80W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | 9AM CDT Sun Oct 07 | 18.80N | 86.40W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 48 | 9AM CDT Mon Oct 08 | 21.10N | 86.80W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 60 | 9PM CDT Mon Oct 08 | 22.90N | 86.90W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 72 | 9AM CDT Tue Oct 09 | 24.50N | 87.40W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 84 | 9PM CDT Tue Oct 09 | 26.60N | 87.70W | 60 mph | 70 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 96 | 9AM CDT Wed Oct 10 | 28.70N | 87.60W | 60 mph | 70 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 108 | 9PM CDT Wed Oct 10 | 30.60N | 86.80W | 60 mph | 70 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 120 | 9AM CDT Thu Oct 11 | 32.70N | 84.90W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
