Special Update to Discuss Disturbance 47 in Western Caribbean
Active Systems
| Name | Max Wind | Classification | Lat | Lon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leslie | 80 mph | Category 1 | 33.3N | 57.3W |
Leslie
Hurricane Leslie is located about 430 miles east of Bermuda with max sustained winds near 80 mph. Our forecast takes Leslie slowly northward over the next 2-3 days, followed by a turn to the east and an acceleration. Leslie could be threatening the western Azores in 8-9 days as a strong tropical storm or possibly a hurricane For further details, please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal.
Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 47 consists of a weak low pressure area located near the east coast of Honduras in the southwest Caribbean Sea. Although there is still considerable disagreement as far as development and a potential track, we think that development chances have increased to 50 percent.
We think that the disturbance will move slowly northward across the western Caribbean Sea over the next 72 hours, reaching the southern Gulf near the northeast tip of the Yucatan on Monday morning. Prior to that time, development chances are low. Once the disturbance reaches the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday or on Monday, development chances will be increasing.
The most likely scenario would be for the disturbance to become a tropical depression by Monday afternoon as it tracks northward across the south-central Gulf. Landfall would occur on the northern Gulf coast between southeast Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle next Wednesday or Thursday. The presence of at least moderate wind shear across the central and northern Gulf next week would mean that the peak intensity would be in the 50 mph to 60 mph range at landfall. As this would likely be a sheared tropical storm, most squalls and tropical storm-force winds would be concentrated to the east of the track.
Unless there are any significant changes with the overnight model runs, we will likely be initiating advisories on this disturbance tomorrow morning.
Disturbance 48 is a weak tropical wave located in the eastern Tropical Atlantic along 30W longitude. The disturbance is moving westward at 12 mph. There is currently no model support for development. We think that development chances are less than 10 percent.
Meteorologists: Chris Hebert / Derek Ortt
