Tropical Storm Kirk Track Chart, Advisory #21

Current Location: 13.8N, 59.3W
Geographic Reference: 45 miles NNE of Barbados
Movement: West-northwest at 13 mph
Max Winds: 50 mph gusting to 65 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 115 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 115 miles
Organizational Trend: Decreasing
Forecast Confidence: Average

Key Points
1. Kirk is predicted to pass near Martinique this afternoon or evening as a tropical storm
2. The worst of the weather will occur after the center moves west of the islands.
3. The primary impact on the islands will be from heavy rainfall.

Our Forecast
The latest aircraft data indicate that Kirk has winds of 50 mph. The center has become exposed and remains west of the squalls. This is due to strong wind shear that is affecting the tropical storm. This shear should increase further throughout the day. Therefore, we are forecasting Kirk to steadily weaken. Winds should be in the 45 mph to 50 mph range when it moves near Martinique this evening. Thereafter, Kirk should move into the Caribbean Sea, where we expect it will dissipate.

Kirk is forecast to slow a little as it moves through the islands. In addition, there is a large area of intense squalls located to the east of the center. The worst of the weather is expected to occur after the center moves west of the islands of the eastern Caribbean. There could be several hours of tropical storm force wind gusts and heavy rainfall. Rain is the greatest threat from Kirk.

Expected Impacts on Land
Northern Windward and the southern Leeward Islands: Some flooding and mudslides may occur, especially north of the center. Power outages are also likely.

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands: What is left of Kirk may enhance shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday into Saturday. Widespread significant impacts are not expected. However, locally heavy rainfall is possible.

Our next advisory will be issued by 4 PM AST / 3 PM CDT.

Meteorologist: Claude Aultman

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 9AM CDT Thu Sep 27 13.80N 59.30W 50 mph 65 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
12 9PM CDT Thu Sep 27 14.70N 61.90W 45 mph 60 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
24 9AM CDT Fri Sep 28 15.50N 64.20W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
36 9PM CDT Fri Sep 28 16.00N 66.20W 35 mph 40 mph Remnant Low 0 1 1
48 9AM CDT Sat Sep 29 16.50N 68.40W 30 mph 35 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.