Current Location: 9.9N, 39.2W
Geographic Reference: 1380 miles ESE of Barbados
Movement: West at 23 mph
Max Winds: 35 mph gusting to 45 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 45 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
1. Kirk may reach the southern Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm on Thursday.
2. Localized flooding may occur for the Windward Islands.
2. Kirk is predicted to dissipate in the eastern Caribbean on Friday.
Our Forecast
Kirk continues to move rapidly to the west this morning. This rapid motion should continue for the next couple of days. As Kirk approaches the Windward Islands, it is forecast to slow down. Our forecast, which is close to the model consensus, takes Kirk near Barbados Thursday morning. Kirk is forecast to move through the rest of the Windward Islands Thursday afternoon or evening.
Kirk remains disorganized. It is not certain if a circulation still expects. This disorganization is likely due to the rapid westward motion of Kirk. While Kirk is forecast to slow as it approaches the Caribbean, strong upper winds are expected to shear the system. Our forecast is for Kirk to be a minimal tropical storm as it moves through the Windward Islands. Dissipation is forecast to occur in the eastern Caribbean on Friday. It is possible that Kirk may dissipate prior to reaching the Caribbean. Even if Kirk is not a tropical cyclone as it moves through the Windward Islands, wind gusts to tropical storm force will be expected, along with locally heavy rains.
Expected Impacts on Land
Windward Islands: Localized flooding may occur due to heavy rains. Any power outages are likely to isolated in nature.
Our next advisory will be issued by 4 PM AST / 3 PM CDT
Meteorologist: Derek Ortt
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9AM CDT Mon Sep 24 | 9.90N | 39.20W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | 9PM CDT Mon Sep 24 | 10.30N | 43.20W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 24 | 9AM CDT Tue Sep 25 | 10.70N | 47.20W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 36 | 9PM CDT Tue Sep 25 | 11.00N | 50.80W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 48 | 9AM CDT Wed Sep 26 | 11.70N | 54.30W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 60 | 9PM CDT Wed Sep 26 | 12.30N | 57.00W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 72 | 9AM CDT Thu Sep 27 | 13.00N | 59.50W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 84 | 9PM CDT Thu Sep 27 | 13.50N | 61.50W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 96 | 9AM CDT Fri Sep 28 | 13.80N | 63.50W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 120 | 9AM CDT Sat Sep 29 | 14.00N | 69.00W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 1 | 1 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
