Current Location: 9.5N, 37.4W
Geographic Reference: 930 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
Movement: West at 23 mph
Max Winds: 35 mph gusting to 45 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 45 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
1. Kirk may reach the southern Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm on Thursday.
2. Kirk is predicted to dissipate in the central Caribbean on Saturday.
Our Forecast
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with Kirk. However, the system remains disorganized. As it approaches the southern Lesser Antilles, the system will likely decelerate and find itself in a more favorable environment for intensification. Kirk is expected to be a 45 mph to 50 mph tropical storm when it tracks through the southern Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Tropical storm force winds will likely be limited to very near the center and within thunderstorms embedded in rainbands.
Once Kirk enters the Caribbean it will encounter less favorable conditions. Therefore, weakening and dissipation is expected as it tracks through the Caribbean over the weekend.
Our next advisory will be issued by 10 AM AST / 9 AM CDT.
Meteorologist: Cameron Self
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 3AM CDT Mon Sep 24 | 9.50N | 37.40W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | 3PM CDT Mon Sep 24 | 10.00N | 41.40W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 24 | 3AM CDT Tue Sep 25 | 10.30N | 45.50W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 36 | 3PM CDT Tue Sep 25 | 10.70N | 49.30W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 48 | 3AM CDT Wed Sep 26 | 11.10N | 52.70W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 60 | 3PM CDT Wed Sep 26 | 11.60N | 55.80W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 72 | 3AM CDT Thu Sep 27 | 12.30N | 58.50W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 84 | 3PM CDT Thu Sep 27 | 13.10N | 61.10W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 96 | 3AM CDT Fri Sep 28 | 13.40N | 63.70W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 108 | 3PM CDT Fri Sep 28 | 13.70N | 66.30W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 120 | 3AM CDT Sat Sep 29 | 13.80N | 70.00W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 132 | 3PM CDT Sat Sep 29 | 14.20N | 73.90W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
